Some thoughts on Big Ten Basketball...

I've been able to watch some basketball today and look forward to watching the big game tomorrow (Wis @ Min of course).

*** To start the season I was a little disappointed that the Gophers only played Iowa once and it was a home game. Obviously my thought process was that any game against a bottom 4 team is preferable to a road game against anybody else. Now I feel fortunate that we don't have to travel to Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes have now beat Michigan State and Ohio State at home, and don't forget the near upset of Indiana. There is a reason they have 6 losses and in the Barn I feel pretty confident that we'll beat them.

*** The vaunted Ohio State zone allowed 11 threes today, including 8 for Justin Johnson. My question is this...Why were the Gophers unable to get any open looks when they played in Columbus last week? We made a total of 6 and Hoffarber was 1/7. Maybe we just didn't shoot it very well, but I think we just didn't get very many good looks.

I hope that Iowa developed a blue print that Tubby and friends will learn to execute on March 1st.

*** What the hell happened to Penn State? This team has looked completely inept since the loss of Claxton (and they weren't much better than inept with him), and now they BEAT? Michigan State? I know it was a home game but the Spartans have been playing great in the last couple weeks. This game has been a lot of fun to watch. The Nittany Lions are finally playing with some fight in them. Again, I'm glad that our only remaining match up on the schedule is at home.

*** There is some very good young talent in the Big Ten. I haven't done any research to compare this to other conferences but the athletic ability and talent of some of these young kids is very good. I'm not talking about Eric Gordon here, I mean there are is a lot of talent that will be in the conference for at least 3 if not 4 years.

Guards

• Kalin Lucas (MSU) - super quick, excellent penetrator and scorer
• Eric Gordon (IU) - leads league in scoring, will likely be gone very soon
• Manny Harris (Mich) - 16.3 ppg, 3 apg and 4.5 reb? He is very good.
• Jordan Crawford (Ind) - 4 games of 16+ pts, a dangerous scorer
• Jon Dielber (OSU) - a dominant scorer who may need a year to adjust but watch out for him in the coming seasons
• Evan Turner (OSU) - he doesn't get the press but watch him dominate come March
  
• Al Nolen (MN) - leads Big Ten in steals and quietly one of the best on the ball defenders
• Blake Hoffarber (MN) - may be the best pure shooter in the league, not very athletic
• Taylor Battle (PSU) - nearly 10 ppg but is really growing into a leader with Claxton out
• E'Tauwan Moore (Pur) - double figures in 7 of last 8 games, 3 turnovers in last 4 games
• Demetri McCamey (Ill) - increased scoring avg in conference play by 2+ ppg
  
• Michael Thompson (NU) - nearly 5 assists per game and can score too (12.6)

That list isn't exactly in order, but that is a solid list of some very good players. Outside of Gordan that entire list will be playing at least 3 years. There is some serious athleticism and speed listed up there. Conference RPI is cyclical but the Big Ten could be a deep conference over the next few years.

*** I'm tired of hearing how tough it is to play at certain arenas. It seems to be a popular subject lately. Especially Big Ten Network commentators love talking about how Wisconsin and Michigan State are two of the toughest places to play. But is that really true? Do the Badgers and Spartans have a decided home court advantage? Or do they just have gaudy home records because they have really good teams?

What venues are more difficult to others is tough to quantify but I bet a year or two ago Illinois would be on that short list of the toughest places to play. Why? Because they were good not because their student section or a quirky court aided their home games, but I don't think teams are fearing Champaign this year. They are 2-3 at home beating Michigan and Northwestern.

I just think it's dumb.

Big Ten = Finesse? Welcome to the "Spread Ten"

In case you hadn't heard Michigan has hired the former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez. This continues to move the Big Ten to the spread conference.

Spread Offenses
Minnesota
Michigan
Northwestern
Purdue
Indiana
Illinois

Elements of Spread
Penn State - usually 1 back, 3 WR
Michigan State

Power I
Iowa
Ohio State
Wisconsin

That leaves us with over 1/2 of the conference running versions of the spread offense and a couple more that are pretty close. Just 2 years ago this was still a power conference. But move the gophers from the best running offense in the country to a spread and then move your traditional power team like Michigan to the spread for 2008 and officially the balance of the conference has shifted.

Remember when the Big Ten was considered your typical midwestern, tough guy conference? Those days are getting further away in your rear-view mirror.

In the other BCS conferences you have a handful of teams in each that use elements of the spread but fewer teams that are true spread offenses. The Big 12 for example only has 3 teams that are true spreads, but teams like Texas, Kansas, and A&M use elements of the spread. Gaging which teams are "true spreads" and which teams are using pieces of it is difficult to determine, and I don't watch enough to have a firm grasp on every BCS team, but it is noteworthy that 55% of the conference is running this fashionable offense.

What exactly is my point? Well, as usual I'm not sure I have one, but this brings up several questions in my mind...

Is this just a coincidence that so many Big Ten teams are moving in this direction?

I'm sure every school has a different rea.son they are now spread teams.

• Minnesota - Brewster wants to use it as a recruiting tool.
• Michigan - they hired a coach, not a system. The spread just comes with it.

Did the rest implement the system early to try and differentiate themselves from the traditional B10 power? Northwestern rode it to a Rose Bowl berth, Purdue was close but couldn't get over the hump of the big dogs, Indiana was always bad and needed something to close the gap

Is this a sub conscience effort to get the Big Ten back as the best football conference in the country?

The perception that the SEC just has too much speed for the plodding Big Ten is widely accepted as fact (whether or not it is actually true). Is this offense a tool to become more relevant and productive? Will it really make a difference? I believe that it doesn't matter what system you run, if you run it well and have the players to run it then you can win as many games as you want.

The gopher offense under Glen Mason was consistently putting up as many yards and points as the spread offenses around the country. If they would have had some talent on defense there is no reason they couldn't have become more nationally relevant. And to refute the SEC Speed argument they did beat 9-4 Arkansas in 2003 and Alabama in 2005.

I don't think conscientiously this has anything to do with getting back to national prominence as a conference. But will that be a byproduct?

What does this do with recruiting?

Brewster thinks that running the spread is a "fun" offense that will be appealing to kids in recruiting. This may be very true, but will it be hard to recruit the speed and skill position players necessary to succeed with the spread when your recruiting base is the midwest?

While the "southern speed" concept often makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit because it is so overused, but there is some truth to it. Recruiting guru Tom Lemming points out,

"There's a lot of big kids in Chicago. You get a lot of the bigger people living here, like the Germans, Polish, and Scandinavians. It's the same in Minnesota and Wisconsin and around the Midwest. You go to Wisconsin and no matter how many top players you're looking at, a lot of them are going to be big linemen, like 30 or 40 of them. But if you go down south, you'll have like one or two."

The Big Ten made it's name on being big and physical, not fast. Why? Because that is the schools had at their disposal in their recruiting base. I know that recruiting is more national than it used to be but you still make a living with your base. So can 6 teams in the midwest steal enough fast skill position players away from the south? Can 11 teams bring in defensive backs to cover the spread? There is speed in the midwest but not in the quantity that you'll find in the south.

Will the national perception of the conference change?

This is the million dollar question. As was mentioned a few times already the Big Ten is traditionally a power conference. Smash-mouth, tough and full of offensive linemen that will dominate is some of what comes to mind when you hear Big Ten. How long before that changes?

Can you say with a straight face that the Big Ten = Finesse conference? Big Ten = speed? Big Ten = pass happy?

Crazy, but that is what it is becoming.

How long before the spread trend subsides?

Quick answer - when teams figure out how to stop it. Currently you hear all the time like Ohio State can't defense the spread, Michigan wasn't beat by AppState they were beat by the spread. But how long will that take? Will it take a new defensive system? How about the 3-3-5?

I'm actually intrigued by the 3-3-5. The more the spread is proliferated in NCAA football the more a defense like 3-3-5 makes sense. Time will tell.

Big Ten Football predictions

ESPN's spring wrap up includes a VERY early prediction of Big Ten standings...

Big Ten Spring Wrap
Predictions:
1. Wisconsin
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Michigan State
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Northwestern
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota

LAST in conference?!? I don't hold out any hope that Gopher Nation will be spending the New Year in Pasadena (at least not this year), but I also don't see last place as a reality. As I recall we finished ahead of 5 teams a year ago and we return 9 of 11 defensive starters, starting RB and most of our OL. We also were a pass interference call away from beating Penn State a year ago which would have lead to a .500 conference finish.

A closer look shows that we have Purdue and Illinois at home, NW and Indiana on the road. All are winnable and would put us at 4 conference wins. Remaining games are OhioState, @Michigan, @Iowa and Wisconsin. Certainly 3 losses with the hope of an upset in there. At this point I see 4-4 as a realistic conference record. Not a rosey season be certainly not last place worthy.

Big Ten Rundown...

Michigan - After the hiring of Tubby Smith, Michigan hiring John Beilein away from West Virginia is probably the biggest news in weeks. Beilein has been very successful at WV after inheriting an 8-20 team. His run at WV was highlited by an Elite Eight apperance in the 2004-05 NCAA Tournament and winning the NIT this past season. Hiring a very successful coach away from another big time conference is a nice move by Michigan. We'll see if Beilein can overcome the challenges that face the basketball program in Michigan.

Iowa - lets stay with the basketball coaching theme here as Iowa watched the highly unpopular Steve Alford pull a Tubby and leave before he was tarred and feathered. The Hawkeyes replaced Alford with former Butler coach Todd Lickliter. Lickliter has been VERY successful at the Mid-Major level so his obvious challenge will be trying sustain that success in the Big Ten. I know my heart will break if he fails miserably.

Ohio State - the talk at this football school is all about the basketball team. After losing to Florida in the NCAA Championship game (which sport?) all speculation surrounds the NBA futures of Greg Oden and Mike Connely Jr. Common assumptions are that Oden is a lock to follow Kevin Durant from Texas to the NBA, but what about Connely? Some say he's leaving some think not. I don't know and I don't have an opinion on him leaving or not, but I do have a bold prediction. Should Connely stay he will be Big Ten Player of the Year and will battle with Tyler Hansboro for the Wooden Award.

The other big news out of Ohio is the newborn baby named Tressel Hayes! Sure to be a legend.

Illinois - This isn't new news but the Illini FB program recieved high marks for it's second straight outstanding recruiting class. Minnesota will be in direct competition with Illinois in their efforts to rise to the next level in the Big Ten.

Michigan State - The Spartans won their third hockey National Championship. That's great and we are happy for you but the problem is that they screwed up their streak of winning every 20 years. Champions in 1966 and 1986 they were 1 year tardy by winning in 2007 instead of 2006.

Indiana - I have not seen anything interesting coming out of Bloomington. Things should start to get crazy there next fall. Is their football team going to be any good? No, Eric Gordon will be on campus as the next great Hoosier, ready to team with DJ White as early favorites (along with Ohio State) to win the Big Ten. Gordon is one of the top 3 high school seniors out there, Indiana's Mr. Basketball and along with the rest of this stellar recruiting class should make for an exciting season at IU.

Purdue - the Boilermakers lose their top 2 scorers but will replace them with 2 positional top 10 players next season. They will be young but talented so that always makes for an interesting season.

Penn State - PSU is in the midst of spring practice and hopes are high as they return 15 starters and 33 letterwinners. Replacing Tony Hunt and improving O-line play will be a couple of the keys to Penn State getting into the BCS picture.

Northwestern - also had trouble finding much of anything noteworthy out of NU. Looking at basketball recruiting it looks as though NU is in the running for the #1 SG of the 2008 class. Of course I know nothing about this kid (Jarrett Mann, Middletown, DE) other than what I just typed, but it would be a coup for the Wildcats to land a kid of that caliber.

Wisconsin - I'm going to ignore the obvious greatness of their recently completed basketball season (and sudden THUD in the NCAA tourney). Football practice is underway and the story in Madison is the QB competition to replace John Stocco. Sr. Tyler Donovan is being pushed by Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge. Who will be the man? Who cares, Badgers suck :) !