Breaking Down the Box - Colorado State

slight changes are in order for Breaking Down the Box, just so you know. Since I was unable to watch the game and only listened to a portion of the WCCO broadcast much of this is of course based on the box.

Game Ball - Blake Hoffarber

The freshman shooting guard continued his improved and more confident play as he had his coming put party on Saturday. Blake hit 6 threes on his way 21 points and is adding valuable depth to the already surprising gopher bench. The Star Tribune's Myron Medcalf goes so far as to say that Hoffarber is "quickly solidifying his place as one of the team's go-to scorers and best offensive options." I don't know if I'm willing to go that far quite yet. I still think that he is at best our distant 4th best offensive option (Nolen and Westbrook will have their nights as well).

But I love that we have a pure shooter who is confident enough to shoot whenever he is in rhythm and can get it off. He isn't a scorer yet who can get by his defender and score in the lane or find the open man at the rim, but he is a shooter and if he requires a defender to glue to him that opens up the rest of the floor for they guys who are scorers. If his defender can't help on penetration because he knows Blake will drill a 3, then that will make life easier for McKenzie and the frontcourt.

And in addition to how he will help the offense it is huge to have more and more talent coming off the bench. What was supposed to be a real weakness for the gophers is turning into a strength. We have diversity coming off the bench...

• PG - Nolen - controls the game and is playing great at the PG spot
• SG - Hoffarber - becoming a dangerous shooter who can fill up the box score
• SF - Johnson - defending great and has been a spark
• C - Williams - rebounding and giving more than anybody imagined
• G - Payton - not sure what he offers except solid min so others can rest

This group has played outstanding and I'd love to see their +/- cause I bet it is better than the starters through the first 7 games.

Temp-Free Zone

eFG% - 61.5 is great, Hoffarber's 6 threes helps a lot
Turnover% - 16.6 - lowest of the season

National Rankings... intersting that Ken Pomroy's collection of temp-free stats with rankings and season predictions.

Offensive Efficiency - 25th - (191st last year)
Off Rebounding % - 3rd - (310th last year!)
Block % - 12th - (218th last year)

Predicted Record - 23-7
Pomroy RPI - 32nd - bubble team baby

X-Factor - Lawrence McKenzie

I'm going with an odd choice here. McKenzie gave us his 2nd game of the short season scoring less than 5 points. What I love is that despite his 20% shooting night he still gave us 5 assists and only two turnovers. And I love that he didn't throw up a ton of shots trying to "get it going." If he can play controlled and if we can score 90 points (regardless of the opponent) when he isn't putting in the hoop then this team will win more games than even I thought they would (and I drink a lot of kool aid).

What Does this Mean?

Again, not a whole lot as this is a rebuilding team. The Rams won't be sniffing the Tourney (or .500 for that matter), but we executed our game plan and we dominated. These are games that we would win 9/10 of the time but the fact that we are dominating is very encouraging. The Big Ten season will be very different but as I watch the other conference teams more and more only a couple of them truly scare me. Many will be very winable. Fortunately we still have nearly a month to get better. I can't wait for some B10 games!

Colorado State @ Minnesota - Preview

This game is a great game for this golden gopher team that is coming together. On Monday night they played a North Dakota State team that was guard heavy. Ben Woodside, Mike Nelson and Brett Winkleman are perimeter oriented players who combine for 57 points per game. The Bison had very little inside game to speak of. But the gophers played great perimeter D and dominated the paint and won going away.

The rams of Colorado State offer a different contest. While the Rams primary scorers are their PG and SG (Marcus Walker and Willis Gardner), they also get plenty of production from two 7' post players.

• Soph - Stuart Creason - 7'0" starting center averages 12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg and 1.5 blocked shots per game.
  
• FR - Ronnie Aguilar - 7'0" reserve center who does not score much but has been solid on the boards at nearly 5 reb/game
• FR - Flynn Claymon - 6'9" reserve gets limited time but is another big body in the paint

Having never seen the rams play I don't believe they are a frontcourt dominated team, but they should present a much better inside/out combo than NDSU did. Tomorrow afternoon night the gophers will be forced to defend their big guys and their guards.

Nothing about this game leads me to believe we should be fearful of an upset. This current gopher squad is getting better every game as they are learning their roles in Tubby's offense and most importantly they are learning to play aggressively-together on the defensive end. Playing a team that will present different challenges than the last team did is good for the gophers. Monday night they were up to the challenge of stopping a perimeter oriented team that was capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Tomorrow they'll have to work harder to control the paint while they still have to shut down a couple of good guards.

Matchups

PG - Westbrook vs. Marcus Walker - Walker is the ram's leading scorer at around 16 points per game. It is quickly becoming apparent that Westbrook is going to be called upon to guard the opponents best perimeter player to start the game. And he has done a fine job. The further we get into the season the more I think Nolen should be starting. Westbrook has exceeded my expectations and has really helped us this year the numbers below show me that Nolen really should be your starting (and finishing) PG.

	Nolen	Westbrook
Assist	23	8
Turnovers	8	8
Steals	17	4
Pnts/gm	5.3	7.8

Back to the matchup, Walker has been the rams best player but the gophers have done a nice job defending guards this year. Florida State's Isaiah Swan had a nice burst of scoring early but was essentially shut down for the 2nd half. And NDSU's Woodside was held to his lowest point total since the first game of the season. My money is on the gophers keeping Walker below his season average. But I also think Walker will give CSU more than Westbrook will give the gophers so the rams get the slight edge.

SG - Lawrence McKenzie vs. Willis Gardner - Gardner leads the team in assists, is 2nd leading scorer at 12.8 ppg and most importantly rebounds really well for being a 6'1" guard bringing in almost 5 rpg. I don't know what kind of defense he will offer McKenzie, but Lawrence has 2 jobs. One - box out Gardner, don't let him give the rams a handful of extra possessions. Two-score within the context of the offense, if he can be patient and take what is given to him I expect that he will have a 20 point game.

SF - Johnson vs. Adam Nigon - I took a stab at putting Johnson in the lineup last game (and was wrong), but with Abu-Shamala breaking having a boo-boo on his nose I expect Johnson will get the nod to start. He has clearly been the biggest surprise of the season and I hope he gets the start and keeps it. For the rams, Nigon has been starting recently and averaging 20 min per game but really hasn't been much of a contributor on the offensive end. I don't know what to expect with this machup, but I like what we have gotten from Johnson on both ends of the floor so I give this one to MN as well.

PF - Coleman vs. Andre McFarland - it seems like every game Coleman has the most intriguing mathcup. McFarland is a freshman forward who will give a couple inches to Coleman but he looks to be a very strong kid. In the NDSU game Coleman was able to face up his defender, get by him in one dribble then rise up and score within 5 feet of the rim. DC looks to have the height advantage to get his shot off inside again but the question is can he get by McFarland? I anticipate that McFarland will be physical with Coleman and the biggest question of the night is how will DC respond? Will he shy away and play on the perimeter, which will likely put him in Tubby's doghouse? Or will he be mentally tough enough to take the contact and still play the game to his strength? Since DC is coming off his best game of the 2007-08 season and McFarland is a freshman learning the ropes I'll tentatively give this one to the gophers.

C - Tollackson vs. Stuart Creason - another very interesting matchup. Tollackson is savvy in the paint and has played well against bigger centers in the past (especially big guys who are not Greg Oden). Creason has been aggressive on the offensive glass, a good shot blocker and has been a consistent scorer. Tollackson has been solid this season but not spectacular. I'm going to give this edge to Creason. Tollackson will give a lot to the gophers without dominating his man but if the rams stay in this game it will have to be because of Creason's inside presence.

Bench - what I once thought would be a gopher weakness is quickly becoming a strength. With Nolen on the bench, the shooting of Abu-Shamala & Hoffarber and the rebounding of Williams there is excellent balance and productiveness from the bench. The rams bench has good size but it is young and not very deep. Key guys to watch for are...

• Ronnie Agular - 7'0" sophomore center
• Jesse Woodard - 6'1" freshman point guard
• Josh Simmons - 6'4 freshman shooting guard
• Flynn Clayman - 6'9" freshman forward

Decent balance, but I don't see them contributing nearly as much as the gopher bench.

Prediction

This will be another solid win for the gophers. I don't see this as a "trap" game and I think they will come out focused and improved. I really expect that they will be focused on Creason in the paint right away and set the tone that he won't be getting anything easy. In the end our guards get this one for us and the gophers improve to 6-1.

Minnesota - 78
Colorado State - 63