Big Ten / ACC Challenge from Tallahassee

Below I have what I am certain will the Gopher's starting lineup.

This should really be a fun game to watch.

Matchups?

PG - Nolen vs. Douglas - Nolen has been playing really well lately but if I gave him the edge here, one could accuse me of being a homer. I'll give the edge to the Auburn transfer, but it's a slight edge. If Nolen can give some scoring spark, not turn the ball over and even create some steals that would go a long way towards a gopher win.

SG - Westbrook vs. Swan - I'm sure you'll see at least 4 different gophers guarding Swann. He is shooting great and keeping him down a little is critical to a win. It is tough to win on the road when the home team's best player is filling up the stat sheet. Defending Swann is critical and somebody has to do it. I actually am looking forward to watching McKenzie guarding him most of the time.

G/F - McKenzie vs. Rich - here is where we start to gain an advantage. McKenzie should be able to have a big night tonight, assuming his hammy is healthy and assuming he is shooting well. Rich is solid and likes to post up smaller guards but our bench should give us greater size at this position. Lawrence is a key every night but we'll need him on both ends tonight.

F - Coleman vs. Reid - once again this might be the pivotal matchup. The sophomore Reid isn't (shouldn't) going to dominate the scoring or even rebounding, but this is a game that Coleman really has an opportunity to step up and lead us tonight. Coleman just outscoring Reid isn't going to be enough. If he can play good D and chip in 16+ tonight then our chances of pulling out this huge road win go up significantly.

F/C - Tollackson vs. Echefu - advantage, Tollackson. Echefu is having a decent season but Tollackson is the heart and soul of this team. I am certain that he will have a really big game. But we need to not just win this matchup we need to dominate the paint. Echefu can't score and we need to dominate the boards.

Bench vs. Bench - I'm a big fan of the gopher bench tonight. I think that Johnson will matchup very well in this game with Mims and Rich. But everyone on the bench for Minnesota is slow and especially in the backcourt can be a defensive liability tonight. Abu-Shamala and Williams may both contribute with their 3-pt shooting and rebounding respectively but neither are complete players and could also be a liability with their lack of foot speed and scoring ability respectively.

Keep an eye out for everybody's favorite FSU alum (pictured right)!

Starting Lineups

MINNESOTA

PG - Nolen
SG - Westbrook
SG/F - McKenzie
PF - Coleman
C - Tollackson

key sub - Johnson (SF)
key sub - Williams (C)
key sub - Abu-Shamala (SG)
key sub - Payton (G)

FLORIDA STATE

PG - Douglas - 6'1"
SG - Swann - 6'2"
SF - Rich - 6'3"
PF - Reid - 6'9"
PF - Echefu- 6'9"

key sub - Mimms (G) - 6'3"
key sub - Vaugn (C) - 6'10"
key sub - Breedan (F) - 6'8"

Prediction

The more I think about it the more I like our chances, but I just can't give the edge to Minnesota. The win at Iowa State was a nice road win, but it doesn't exactly make us road warriors. Tubby has these guys playing hard but the overall talent is still limited. If 3 or 4 things go our way we could win and we could even win going away. Florida State isn't exactly a great team, but they are good. They beat the Gators in Gainesville but they also lost to Cleveland State and South Florida.

Coleman and McKenzie are the key. Coleman needs to dominate his matchup for the first time this season and McKenzie needs to score in bunches. But I think on the road we lose to the talented backcourt of Florida State.

Minnesota - 64
Florida State - 68

CMU down, FSU to go

There was a lot of talk about Central Michigan being a "trap" game as it was sandwiched in between Iowa State and Florida State. Clearly the ISU and FSU games are significant in that they are against major conference teams. The trap game is out of the way and the gophers played solid for the last 20:03 to win the game. Before I get into the FSU game here are some CMU thoughts.

WHAT I LIKED

Al Nolen - Kevin Payton did not start, but his spot wasn't given to Nolen. I don't understand why, but he continues to play as though he is more experienced than a true freshman. Only 4 points in 26 min but he chipped in 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 3 steals and most significantly only 1 turnover. I am guaranteeing that Nolen will start vs. Florida State tomorrow night.

Balanced Scoring - Rather than 2 guys giving us 40+, the gophers had a nice balance in the scoring column. 14, 11, 10, 9, 9 and 7 for their top 6 scorers. I know we have 3 that need to carry our scoring load but it is nice that we can get contributions from everyone when Tollackson and McKenzie don't carry us.

Rebounding - again we dominated the boards which is remarkable considering how bad we were on the glass last season.

WHAT I DIDN'T LIKE

Sluggish Start - We can't win by just showing up. I am on record multiple times that I think this gopher team is much better than most anticipated (they'll jump on the bandwagon soon). BUT I am not delusional enough to believe that they are a great team that can beat bad teams just by showing up. I don't care who we are playing, if we don't play well we are suseptable to losing. We have 3 legit players, a good freshman and a couple decent subs. Every team we play has talented players who are capable of beating us. We started sluggish last night and fortunately won with our defensive pressure in the 2nd half. But there are a number of games on our schedule that will end in losses if we don't start applying that pressure from the opening tip.

Turnovers - 24 turnovers is just too many. If you want to keep a less talented team in the game then give them 24 extra possessions. Fortunately the Chippewas gave 23 back to us, but that can't happen against better teams or we'll get killed.

Three Point Shooting - 7/20 isn't terrible but in 2007 that isn't very good. When you are shooting 35% there is not reason you should be taking 20 threes. On the bright side Hoffarber had his best game as a gopher and was 3/5 from behind the arc.

LOOKING AHEAD to Florida State

1-I am going to the game. I'm SO excited I can't even tell you. I signed up for and have my spot reserved to accompany the team to Tallahassee. Hopefully I'll get some good blogging material from this excursion.

2-Florida State was a solid team last year. They won @Duke and beat Florida during the regular season, finished with 20 wins (9-7 in ACC) but were left out of the tourney. The bad news for the gophers is they return 4 starters from that team, the good news is they were a 1 man show and the 1 moved on to the NBA.

Projected Starting Lineups

MINNESOTA

PG - Nolen (this is going to happen)
SG - McKenzie
SG/F - Abu-Shamala (maybe Johnson?)
PF - Coleman
C - Tollackson

key sub - Johnson (SF)
key sub - Williams (C)
key sub - Westbrook (G)
key sub - Payton (G)

FLORIDA STATE

PG - Swann - 6'2"
SG - Douglas - 6'1"
SF - Rich - 6'3"
PF - Reid - 6'9"
PF - Echefu- 6'9"

key sub - Mimms (G) - 6'3"
key sub - Vaugn (C) - 6'10"
key sub - Breedan (F) - 6'8"

ANALYSIS

Well, we match up well. They don't have great size or depth. They have all guards and forwards. We have all guards, a couple forwards and a center. Ultimately this team has a couple of nice wins this year and a couple of crappy losses. I'm not sure which team we'll see.

This is a serious test on the road but I think it is a winable game.

KEYS

1 - Dominate the paint - I think both backcourts will score all night. The team that owns the paint will win.

2 - Stop Swann - he's been hot and shooting the ball great. Swann is 51% from behind the arc this season and is averaging 16.6 ppg.

3 - TAKE CARE of the BALL - we had a TON of turnovers vs. Central Michigan. That cannot happen against a better team with an experienced backcourt like Florida State.

This game would be a great win, but my money is on Florida State winning a close game.