Conference Tourney Time

So I missed any pre or post game coverage of the Northwestern domination (thank you Mr. Westbrook). Here is a box score widget for you...


It is nice to see that we only had 10 turnovers as that has been a problem for us lately. And we outrebounded the Wildcats giving up only 2 offensive rebounds. Apparently the football pads in practice paid off. Getting to shooters on the defensive end will have to improve or IU will kill us inside and out.

Next up is Indiana. The Hoosiers are not a great match up for us because of their balance and athleticism. Teams with athletic players like Gordon, Ellis, Crawford, etc. are just bad for us as we are not an overly athletic team.

Obviously if we don't play a full 40 min game we will exit the B10 Tourney through the NIT door.

I do not believe in the adage that "it's tough to beat a team three times." So we DON'T have that going for us. Unless the teams are relatively equal the team that is 2-0 is usually 2-0 for a reason. Indiana is a better team and this should be a W for them.

What we can hope for is the Hoosiers will be as disinterested as they have been since the Sampson firing resignation. If you throw out their 14 point win over Minnesota they have been very average since the Purdue win.

Let's also hope that the 1st half ugliness we witnessed yesterday can be chalked up to "looking past" Northwestern. This group of Gophers is not known for their mental toughness so looking past a team they had beaten twice is very plausible. They will need to come out and apply pressure for 40 minutes. Can they cause turnovers that they turn into points? Can they regain their man-to-man pressure that kept them in games against Indiana and Michigan State in January?

I give us about a 20% chance to win, but it wouldn't be the biggest shocker of the year.

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Let's all root for Georgia today. We could possibly see the highest rated NIT game in the last decade if Minnesota were to face Kentucky in Madison Square Garden.

Breaking Down the Box - Northwestern

Northwestern - 63
Minnesota - 82
BOX SCORE



On paper this game should have played out about like it did. But gopher fans (the ones who paid attention post-Clem and pre-Tubby) know that this is a game the gophers often lose. So when the Wildcats started shooting 75% and jumped out to a 20-14 lead I was worried we'd witness another meltdown. But Travis Busch nailed a free throw that "sparked" a 20-2 run and the gophers dominated the rest of the way.

The only stretch that really concerned me was late in the 2nd half the gophers appeared to throttled down a little bit. They had built up a 17 point lead with just under 12:00 left, but then seemed to coast for the next 8 or 9 minutes. Now the Wildcats didn't make a huge run (10-18) and it wasn't as thought we completely quit, but it was enough to let an inferior team chip the lead to single digits and have some life in the last 3:00. We aren't good enough to do that. Wis, Ind, MichSt and OhioSt will kill us if we do that. Illinois, PennSt, Pur will make the runs to get the game back if we do that. It just got sloppy and we didn't take control of the game. I'm getting picky and I didn't need to win by more points, I just didn't want to see NU get back into it.

What I liked? The zone by Tubby was well timed and the perfect call. It mitigated the dreaded backcut and forced NU to get all of their points from behind the arc. And while their shot appeared to be open the Gophers did a great job of running at shooters forcing them to hurry their shots just a bit. In the 16-0 run the Wildcats took 5 three point attempts and only 2 FG attempts inside the arc missing all seven shots of course. Bill Carmody then called a timeout and on their next possession they took the ball to the basket and finally scored. The zone was the right move and was the key to victory.

GAME BALL - Dan Coleman

19 points, 14 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk, 2 stls
68.2% shooting

DC had his most complete game. It was clear that early the gameplan was to attack the NU zone in the high and low post. Coleman started well catching the ball high and attacking the rim. He finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds, but the key stat was 9 offensive rebounds.

Coleman is now the 17th player in team history to record 1,000+ points and 500+ rebounds.

As I said it was his most complete game this year and hopefully this can carry over into Saturday's game at Penn State. Whether he is guarding Claxton or Cornley it will be a key matchup for the Gophers.

Tempo-Free Zone

Pnts / Poss - 1.119
Def Pnts / Poss - 0.867
Differential - +.252

eFG% - 60.0%
Off Reb% - 36.4%

Statistically this was a much better game than Michigan State. You can't really compare the B10 games to the non-conference games and we are only 2 games into the B10 season so it is hard to get a good grip on what these stats mean.

Up Next?

This win means we have a little momentum going into Penn State. The next 4 games are undoubtedly the toughest stretch on our schedule. @ Penn State is the easiest and the one we need to win. The Nittany Lions are playing well winning their first two conference games (both on the road) and 7 in a row. We need to bring the defense and the rebounding aggressiveness again.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Northwestern

I'd like to rip the Wildcats (and I will) but I should be careful. The last place team in conference who managed just 2 wins, earned one of those wins on the road in Minnesota. What used to be one of the toughest places to play in the league...well that's another topic. I guess the rest of the college basketball world knew this and I'm just now learning that Northwestern is the only BCS conference school who has NEVER been to the NCAA tournament. That is kind of sad really and sadder yet is that we'll be talking about this dubious streak again next year.

Coach Bill Carmody hasn't had the kind of success that Northwestern fans had hoped for when he brought the secretive and wiley Princeton offense to the Big Ten. What Carmody found was that the system doesn't matter when you are lacking in talent. The Wildcats are still lacking in talent but they do have a young nucleus that should be "more" talented than last year.

Northwestern isn't as bad as they are perceived. I've read a few Big Ten Previews that joke how you can pencil in the Wildcats as #11 every year. Not exactly true. Last season was an ugly 2-14, but the previous 3 seasons were 6-10, 6-10 and 8-8. Obviously not NCAA Tourney seasons but also not the bottom of the league. Here are the kids who will work to improve on last year's 2-14 and avoid the cellar for the 2nd straight season...

PG - Michael Thompson - smallish but talented incoming freshman. Incoming talent is a good thing for Northwestern but a freshman PG running a Princeton style offense is kind of scary. Thompson isn't exactly a 4 or 5 star recruit coming in, but he is an upgrade in talent and given time should be a solid guard in the league. Getting athletes that belong in the Big Ten is the first step and Thompson does meet this minimum qualification.

''I think I'm going to put the ball in that kid's hands,'' Carmody said. ''He'll never get you 20 [points] in a game, but he'll help you. He'll run the team. Tough as nails. Smart. Good decision-maker. And I think he'll be a good decision-maker right from the get-go. I'm not going to be afraid to let him take over, because I think we need somebody like that.''

Those are nice words to hear from your head coach before you ever step foot on the court in uniform. I look forward to watching Thompson this season.

SG - Craig Moore - here is some experience in the starting 5. Moore led the team in 3's last year and will need to increase those numbers this year. Extending the defense is a critical element of the Princeton offense so Moore needs to improve on his 32.8% from behind the arc to open things up for team's talented forwards.

SF - Jeff Ryan - talented sophomore who has the physical tools to be the best player on this team. As a freshman his outside shooting was awful, but like the rest of his team he worked very hard on his outside shooting to improve. Coach Carmody says that the 6'7" Ryan has incredible ball handling skills. Put that with his great work ethic and you have a kid who just might turn into a very good B10 player.

PF - Kevin Coble - Coble is the team's most talented player. As a freshman he started 28 games, was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team and led the Wildcats in scoring(13.4) and rebounding(5.2). Not bad for a kid who wasn't all that highly recruited. Here are some interesting comments from his current coach...

''If you look at Coble's game, you say, 'Well, is he real fast? Not really. Is he real strong? Not really. Is he a great passer? Well, he's OK. Is he a great shooter? Eh.' '' Carmody said. ''But then you take the parts and the sum is greater than the parts.

Kind of funny how your best player isn't very strong, fast or isn't a great scorer or passer. Which probably makes him a perfect fit for the system he is in. A system that takes a great shooter, a great passer and a group of great decision makers is a good fit for Coble. I haven't seen him play but he looks to be the leader of this young group who hopefully can lead Northwestern to a weekend tourney in March. Coble has reportedly worked hard in the offseason to improve his strength and shooting range, I am interested to watch him play and see just how good he can become.

C - Nikola Baran - redshirted freshman from Croatia. Baran will probably start some games and and Ivan Peljusic will start the rest, depending on matchups. The center position in the Princeton offense has to be a good passer and make excellent decisions. Coach Carmody isn't convinced the pure shooter Baran has what he wants in a center but time will tell.

Key Bench - Ivan Peljusic - the other redshirt freshman center from Croatia. Peljusic is more of an athletic, low-post scorer and I'm sure he'll see plenty of time off the bench and a handful of starts.
Key Bench - Mike Cappoci - true freshman who is very athletic. He won't start but look for him to be a key member off the bench as he gains valuable experience.
Key Bench - Jason Okrzseik - the 2nd year transfer from Rice and lone senior on the team. Okrzseik could see some starts as I'm sure Carmody will tinker with different starting lineups till he finds what he likes.

Prediction - This team is young and marginally talented. The talent level is improving but it is not at Big Ten standards yet. Of the eight players I anticipate who will contribute the most there is one senior and 1 junior. The four freshmen and 2 sophomores will be the nucleus of this team over the next couple years. This year should be a step forward but getting more than 5 or 6 conference wins (remember 2 extra games) would be an improve year and something they can build on for 2008-09. Personally I look forward to watching them and seeing the young talent grow throughout the season. Unfortunately for Wildcat fans they'll have to wait another year to see the benefits reaped from this group.

UPDATE: If Coble comes back from his leave of absence Northwestern finishes 9th in confernce with 6 wins. If he is not back or is obviously not the same from his time with his sick mother, then they will finish 11th.

Thoughts @ Northwestern

This is kind of live blogging, but it will be sparse....

1st Qtr

• 2nd series for the gophers on defense. 3rd and 18 play was a killer but the offense going 3 and out put this D in a tough spot.
• TD - NW set up by inexcusable 3rd and 18 screen for 45+ yards.
• Offense with its 2nd consecutive 3 and out, this cannot happen!
• Defense gets a stop, offense gets great field position. Ernie makes a nice play to get us to the 1. WE GET STUCK 4 STRAIGHT PLAYS? Yikes, this could be really bad if we can't run the ball.
• End of the first qtr and only down 0-7. My problem with this team is they give up just a couple big plays and they are unable to make a couple big plays necessary to win. For example...
• 3rd and 18 screen to the 2 is terrible, make that stop and NW is shutout through 1 qtr.
• Sherels has a great kick return but steps out of bounds with nobody near him.
• Can't score from the 1 on 4 straight plays.

Not going to win this game or any game if we can't make plays that winning teams make.

2nd Qtr

key stats...
* 1 first down by the offense
* 8 yards rushing on 7 attempts. I'd love nothing more than to see the ground game get on track but not with a 1.1 yd average.

• OOOH, dodged a bullet. Missed FG. Another decent job by the defense with the exception of 1 big play. Dom Barber made a great play on 3rd and goal to force the FG attempt which was missed!
• Make if 0-5 when we need just 1 yard to go. Is this a symptom of the spread coast offense? Are 3rd and 3 situations more manageable than 3rd and 1? I don't know but this is frustrating.
• Great HIT by Cooley, but c'mon freshman it was a 15 yard pickup on 1st down. Let's get excited when you make a stop or pop the ball loose with a big hit.
• It looks to me like NW recognizes and sniffs out most of our plays. The Dunbar factor has to be an issue here. What I'm anxious to see is the 2nd half. I have noticed in most of our games is that we run a lot of plays in the 1st half that set up plays in the 2nd half. Will Dunbar get his offense on track or will NW know what is coming and adjust before we do?
• TD - MN! Well, I spoke too soon. After NW snuffed out a little bubble screen to put us at 2nd and 12, MN then went on a dominant drive and scored! Weber looked solid on this drive making a few nice reads to open receivers and made the right decision to fake to Pinnix and run for good yardage to the right. The drive was capped off by a good play call that was set up well by Weber's fake. Marcus Sherels with his first TD! 7-7!
• OK, defense gets a stop, offense gets a chance to give us the lead before half. 4:45 left! How about a 4:30 drive for 7, then we get the ball to start the 2nd half!
• TD - MN!! Great throw by Weber who is having a great game thus far. Then Pinnix pounds it in. Is the running game stronger cause Pinnix is that much better than Thomas? Is it play calling? Was the pass setting up the run and it took this long to pay off? I don't care at this point. Now the defense can't give up a quick drive to let NW tie the game. 1 more 1st half stop, PLEASE!

• HOLY CRAP what a catch for Wheelright! The defense predictably gave up a quick TD drive to NW, but Minn comes back to take the 7 point lead with :02 left in the half. Baring a kickoff return for TD, 21-14 at half.

Halftime thoughts...

This is clearly the best the defense has played all year and for the most part the offense has been hitting on all cylinders as well.

Defensively we have given up a lot of yards passing. But the bright side is they only have 31 yards rushing and we have forced 4 punts. Stopping this offense 4 times is not exactly impressive but it is very important to winning the game.

2nd half it would be HUGE to score on the opening drive and then just don't turn the ball over.

It is nice to have the lead and it should be a fun 2nd half.

Let's look ahead to Northwestern (and ignor that Indiana debacle)

Sooooo, Northwestern.

Let us start with the perspective of a NW fan. Lake the Posts gives a solid rundown of the MN/NW series in recent years. I found it particularly interesting how really fans of both schools look at their schedule and say "that's a win." I look upon every schedule with optimism and hope as I assume NW, Indiana and Illinois are wins. How dare they assume Minnesota is a team they "should" beat. Well, reality is harsh this year my friends.

While I view this as one of the few remaining "winable" games, in no way do I think this game is a win. Northwestern is more beatable than Michigan and Wisconsin, but the golden gophers have not given us any reason to think that they WILL win a Big Ten game this year.

This is the Alice in Wonderland game. Both teams can look across the line of scrimmage and see themselves in different uniforms.

Spread offense vs. Spread offense
inexperienced coach vs. inexperienced coach
defense that can't tackle vs. defense that can't tackle
turnover prone vs. turnover prone

This game is not enticing to watch unless you are a gopher or wildcat fan. Neither team is going anywhere this season and both are fighting for respectability. The 2 worst defenses in the conference face off in what will surely be an epic display of mediocrity. Both teams are bottom 2 in the following defensive statistical rankings...

• yard allowed
• points allowed
• rushing yards allowed
• sacks by your defense
• turnover margin
• opponents first downs
• def pass efficiency
• opponent's 3rd down conversions (NW is actually 9th but close enough)
  

That makes this look like it will be an offense shoot out but neither offense is exactly efficient. Both are bottom half of conference in scoring, NW is near the bottom in rushing offense and both have double digit turnovers.

Can anything make this game look sexy? No.

Here is your Gopher perspective...

At this point ANY conference win will be a signature win for coach Brewster. 0-8 in conference is significantly worse than 1-7. And really winning a road game with NDSU coming up and your rivalry games looming, this could be a momentum game. I'm not calling a win here but if we can eek out a win this could salvage this season to a notch above disastrous. These guys (especially the defense) could use some confidence.

Keys to the Game...

• Turnovers - have to win the turnover battle
• Tackling - have to tackle better than NW
• Tenacity - this team needs to play with some FIRE, some life from the defense and Weber leading the offense with some guts and we could win this game.