Breaking Down the Box - Michigan State

Minnesota - 73
Michigan State - 78
BOX SCORE

In my call to steal one of three straight tough games, we are left with the road trip to Ohio State to accomplish this task.

The Gophers (read, Tubby Smith) have revitalized the Barn and re-energized a dormant fan base by playing competitive basketball against a couple of the best teams in the country. The team is playing significantly better than they were a year ago, but the fact remains that the talent isn't there to knock off the best of the Big Ten. Defensive pressure is great, shot selection is vastly improved and a couple freshman guards are infusing some life into the team. The team is talented enough and controlling effort enough to compete with anybody, but a top 25 team we are not.

What has become painfully clear over the last week is how poorly coached the current upper class men have been over their career. On key possessions, late in tight games, playing against a quality opponent they are just unable to make good decisions or execute when they have to. The current roster are freshmen and upper class men who are lacking in basketball awareness. Jim Souhan's column in today's Star Tribune says it best...

"If this team were a car, though, the seniors would have been the passenger seats, not the steering wheel or the engine."

They just don't have the ability to exert their will in an appropriate manner on the floor. Dan Coleman is incredibly talented but when he needs to make a big basket he takes 14 ft fade away jump shots. Lawrence McKenzie can create shots for himself and his teammates but when the opponent goes on a little run he tries to stop it with an attempt from 24 ft. And Tollackson may be the smartest of the three, but he is the least talented. Unfortunately the things he can control (boxing out and free throws) seem to be beyond his grasp when needed most. Soph, Lawrence Westbrook, when called upon to take more minutes because of Nolen's injury he records a season high in turnovers.

The point is, these guys haven't been taught how to win and this will be most evident against quality teams. They are playing much better than most people anticipated, but lets not kid ourselves into thinking they are anything more than a bubble team.

Which brings me to another point. Let's not get too carried away with losing 2 games to two teams who will be high seeds in the NCAA's. After the Duel in the Desert everyone was down on this NIT (at best) team. Then a 2-1 conference start and a close loss at MSU had everyone talking about being squarely on The Bubble. Now, we are out of the conversation again. I've said it all year and I'll stick with it, we are going to be a bubble team. Losing to IU and MSU at home may have boosted our resume, it won't keep us out.

Game Ball - Drew Neitzel

19 pts
5 three pointers in the 2nd half

The stats don't do justice what Neitzel's did the the Gophers on Sunday. Big shot after big shot kept Minnesota at arms length and they were never able to close the gap in the 2nd half.

Tempo Free Zone

The Gophers have been very good defensively this year, but this game was lost on the defensive end. Giving up 1.127 points per possession and allowing Michigan State to shoot 57.1 eFG% (49% actual FG%), doomed us. Rebounding was bad, but that has been typical and it was actually better than the trip to East Lansing. But we didn't force enough turnovers and we allowed them to shoot too high of a percentage.

Up Next

This was an opportunity lost, but it isn't exactly a burden too great to bear.

The games that matter most are vs. the Ohio States, Purdues, Iowas (?) and Illinois' of the league. There is plenty of time left in the season and this team is still capable of winning 9 conference games. There is just very little room for error.

The team has the week to prepare for Ohio State on Saturday and that will be a big game. Here is what I see with the remaining schedule...

LOSSES (3) - Wisconsin, @Wisconsin, @Indiana

WINS (5) - @Northwestern, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Penn State

KEY GAMES (5) - @Ohio State, @Michigan, @Purdue, Ohio State, @Illinois

Those 5 toss ups are the key to the season. Win 3 of those and that gives you 10 Big Ten wins, which is probably enough to get into the Tourney with 22 wins. Win only 1 or 2 and it is the NIT for Tubby.

I enjoy looking ahead, but they have to play better if they want to win some of those key road games. The Gophers are playing at a level we haven't seen in several years but if they are disinterested or suffer any lingering affects from this little 0-2 homestand then the season will end sooner than we'd all like.

Michigan State @ Minnesota - (mini) Preview

These two teams played just a couple weeks ago. The match ups really aren't much different, you can find my thoughts from the first time around HERE.

	Michigan State	Minnesota
Record	15-2	12-4
RPI	8	63
KenPom	19	32
SOS	20	144

The two key matchups will be...

Whoever guards Raymar Morgan - 31 pt, 10 reb, and 2 asts just can't happen again. Hopefully Tubby will start Johnson on Morgan, but obviously there will be different people guarding him at different times. Keep him off the glass and keep him from carrying the Spartans again.

Whoever guards Dan Coleman - Coleman was the antithesis of Morgan, having a very below average game in East Lansing. I think if the Gophers want to pull of this upset then DC has to contribute significantly more than 6 points and 2 rebounds.

Keys to the Game

1. Stop Morgan AND Neitzel- I'm afraid that the Gophers will be so concerned with Morgan that they will forget about Neitzel. Final points for either of them isn't as important as letting them take over the game down the stretch. Both are capable of dominating, we can't let that happen.

2. Freshman Guards - Nolen/Hoffarber need to be a greater influence on this game than Kalin Lucas. Last game Lucas had 17 pts, 3 asts, 1 turnover. He needs to have several more TOs and under 13 points. On our side Nolen and Hoffarber need to do what they've been doing lately. Nolen needs to continue to be a mature PG who creates turnovers and the Hoff needs to give us a scoring boost off the bench.

3. REBOUND - last time around we were -17 in rebounding, including 6 offensive boards for Morgan. There is just no doubt that if we are outrebounded like that we won't have a chance to win. If we actually find a way to outrebound the Spartans I predict that we will win. Realistically we just need to keep it within 6 or 7 and we'll be in it till the end with a chance to win.

Prediction

Like I said if we out-rebound them I think we win. I am supremely confident that this will be within a possession in the last couple minutes. I think we have learned from recent close losses and I'm going out on a limb to predict a win. This is more of me being hopeful than analyzing the game and seeing a win for the Gophers. There are things we will have to do and do well to win, but I'm going with my gut this time...

Minnesota - 71
Michigan State - 67

Breaking Down the Box - Michigan State

Minnesota - 59
Michigan State - 65

BOX SCORE

I think we should be happy that we gave the Spartans all they could handle. Unfortunately our standards have been lowered so far that we appreciate moral wins. I'm irked that I'm happy but at the same time I don't know what else to expect. I like this current team but we aren't in the same class as the Spartans. Losing by 6 in East Lansing isn't a bad loss but it is still a loss.

Ultimately, this was the best the gophers have played on the road, maybe at any point this season. They battled and with under 4:00 it was a 1 point game with a team that was deeper, more athletic and more talented in their building. What was disappointing was that when we got to within 1 point we completely fell apart. We didn't box out and we were completely incapable of executing on offense.

4:18 - 57-58 - D. Johnson layup - this is when we quit executing
MSU turnover
Minn turnover
3:35 - 57-60 - K. Lucas free throws
3:15 - McKenzie takes a bad 3 and misses
MSU turnover
2:27 - lack of execution and McKenzie is forced to take a bad 3
1:58 - Neitzel miss, Offensive rebound
1:49 - Lucas miss, Offensive rebound

NOTICE IT IS STILL A 3 POINT GAME, the Gophers had 2 possessions without a good shot and gave up 2 extra possessions to MSU on their offensive rebounds. 1:50 without any scoring since the Lucas free throws before Morgan hits one below.

1:45 - 57-61 - Morgan free throw - sub in Hoffarber for Tollackson (kind of interesting)
1:28 - Coleman takes an off balance shot
1:16 - 57-63 - Morgan layup
0:58 - missed a decent post fade away for Tollackson, that is a shot he can make. At least it was in rhythm but a 3 would have been preferable coming out of the timeout.

now game is essentially over. Neitzel misses another shot but MSU gets another offensive rebound then they find Walton for a wide open layup.

We cut the gap to 1, MSU goes on a 7-0 run before Hoffarber scores a meaningless layup. There is the built in excuse that the Spartans have been there before, they are more talented and on the road. Hopefully we can learn from this.

I was pretty happy that Tubby called a timeout with 0:20 left, down 8 to voice his displeasure when his team didn't foul anybody and then gave up a layup. The game was over at this point, but addressing the issue right then was SO MUCH MORE effective than waiting a few min to chew them out in the locker room. Maybe (just maybe) we'll learn something from this.

Nobody expected the Gophers to win this game, but maybe the lessons learned here can be applied to road games in Champaign, East Lafayette, Ann Arbor, Evansville, etc.

Game Ball - Raymar Morgan

Morgan > Gopher seniors (Tollackson-12, McKenzie-10, Coleman-6)

31 pts, 10 reb, 2 assists

This guy was incredible. One player accounted for 47% of the team's points, 6 offensive rebounds and 67% shooting on the night. Incredible.

What Does This Mean?

Who knows. If the Gophers play this well defensively and this hard for the next 680 minutes (17 games) then they could finish 5th, maybe even 4th in conference. But if can't execute down the stretch then we will see a lot of close losses especially on the road.

The next two games are critical.

vs. Northwestern - must win
@ Penn State - must win road game

After that we need to steal one of the next 3 (Ind, MSU, @OSU), but chances are we'll be 2-4 through a third of the conference season. If we hit 3-3 I think gopher nation should be ecstatic.

This was a fun game to watch and it was fun to see them competitive. But we need to see them grow from this or it was meaningless.

Minnesota @ Michigan State - Preview

Let the Big Ten season start. And I don't know who to thank, but thank you for letting us start on the road against the odds on favorite to win the league. This will probably be the worst match up for the gophers the rest of the season.

Before we get into MSU's preview lets take a quick look at the gophers chances the rest of the season. Whether you think they have a chance or not the goal every year has to be to make the NCAA Tournament. Finishing the non-conference portion of your schedule 10-2 still gives them a chance, but their margin for error is slim.

I think they need at least 10 conference wins and at least 1 conference tourney win (probably 2). 12 more wins would give them 22 and it would be hard to keep them out. 9 wins I guess is possible but they would certainly need 2 tourney wins and have at least a win or two in regular season play over MSU, Wis and/or Ind.

The problem is I just don't see us getting 10 wins. Over the last 33 games they have shown they just don't play well on the road.

Here is how the road breaks down...

• 2 wins that you can almost count on (Mich and NW)
  
• 3 more that are winable but if we don't play well they will surely be losses (Pur, PSU, Ill)
• 4 losses (MSU, Wis, OSU, Ind).
  

Home

• Have to win - NW, Mich, Iowa, Ill, PSU (probably win 4 of these 5)
• The rest - Wis, OSU, Ind, MSU (hope for 1)
  

2 road wins means you have to go 8-1 at home, that just won't happen. So that gives us 3 key road games (Pur, PSU, Ill). Win a couple of those and then things get interesting. Then all of your home games are key. Have to win all of the games against the non-top 4 and then getting a win or two against the best would be huge.

All of this to say I see probably 9 wins and bubble burst on Selection Sunday.

Let's get to Michigan State...

	Mich St	Minn
Record	12-1	10-2
RPI	10	52
KenPomRnk	13	30
SOS	41	207

Match Ups

PG - McKenzie vs. Travis Walton - advantage Gophers, but barely. Every preview I write I beg for Nolen to start at PG. Insert Nolen and I give the ad to Michigan State, a freshman PG starting his first B10 road game against arguably the best in the conference isn't favorable for Minnesota. But I'd rather have that and then let McKenzie play SG to start the game. For the gophers the key is turnovers on both ends. We need to turn over whoever is handling the ball for the Spartans and we have to keep our turnovers down.

SG - Westbrook vs. Neitzel - Westbrook played well in the early part of the non-conference schedule but he just doesn't do much for me. But this one doesn't matter much as Neitzel is an All-American and advantage clearly goes to MSU. Drew hasn't had a monster season thus far but his team is winning even when he doesn't carry the scoring load. As the season goes along this will probably be beneficial to the Spartans.

SF - Abu-Shamala vs. Raymar Morgan - another battle dominated by MSU. Raymar has emerged from being a very good player to one of the best in the Big Ten and arguably the best on his own team. Morgan has been great as of late (but hopefully not in 08?) and this is a bad matchup for the Gophers. If Tubby is ever going to start Johnson at SF this would be the game to do it. Damian stands a chance of defending Morgan whereas Shamala will be scored upon inside, outside and whatever other side Raymar wants to score in.

PF - Coleman vs. Marquise Gray - Coleman has finally found his groove in Tubby's system and is playing better than at any point in his career. The key in this matchup is Coleman boxing out. Gray doesn't put up great numbers but he is 2nd on the team and 106th in the nation at getting offensive rebounds. If Coleman can keep him off the boards that will help the gophers a lot.

C - Tollackson vs. Goran Sutton - while Coleman has played better as of late, Tollackson has played poorly. This is a bad matchup for him. Athletic posts are his cryptonite and while Sutton is not athletic he is just more talented. I don't see Tollackson scoring or stopping Sutton from scoring. If he can help us win it will be on the boards. Sutton averages 8+ reb per game so keeping him under his average would be a a good thing.

BENCH - Michigan State has a deep bench with a few players who would start on most other B10 teams. Backup PG Kalin Lucas is averaging 8.8 pts per game and 4.4 assists. The freshman had 18 pts, 8 reb and 8 asts vs. #5 Texas right before Christmas. So he is to be feared for sure. Durrell Summers and Drew Naymick are also very good and will pose problems for the Gophers.

KEYS - I don't always do keys to the game but for tomorrow's game there are a few things the Gophers HAVE to do if they want a chance...

1. Rebounding - is going to be HUGE on both ends. Michigan State leads the nation in offensive rebounding. They get an extra possession on over 45% of their missed shots. That is incredible. We have to limit their possessions and boxing out (which isn't exactly our strength) will be key. On the other end they are kind of like us, they don't fare too well getting defensive rebounds, and we get back nearly 40% of our misses. So we need to hit the offensive glass hard and keep the ball in our hands.

2. Shoot well from behind the arc - We just plain have to shoot well. The Spartans are good defensively and we just don't shoot well on the road. I don't mean we should be hoisting up three's just to try and stay in the game, but we may need to hit 8-10 from behind the arc to have a chance.

3. Force Turnovers - I know this list is pretty basic but it is so true. Our offense thrives on getting transition baskets from turnovers. When we don't force turnovers we struggle. MSU is solid in the backcourt and I don't expect a lot of turnovers but we have to speed them up and get 4 easy baskets from turnovers.

Prediction

I think the UNLV loss was good for the gophers and maybe they'll come out ready to play. While they easily could get blown out, I think they will play tough tomorrow. I don't think they'l win and I don't think it will be within 4 but I also don't think it will be a blowout.

Minnesota - 63
Michigan State - 71

Here is Isaiah Dahlman in action. The big kid from Braham (MN) is basically the 10th man for Michigan State and sees very little playing time (4.3 min per game). If I were a betting man, my money is on him transferring to Wofford to play with his younger brother who is getting 21 min per game as a freshman.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Michigan State

Everybody's favorite pick to be Big Ten Champs. Hard to argue against Coach Izzo and his spartans. They are the only team with a .500 record or better who return all 5 starters. But does 5 returners from an 8-8 team automatically make them better than the rest of the league? I'm not sold. Exhibition games are usually meaningless and a loss in these games is usually a fluke. But when MSU loses to Grand Valley State and then really struggles with Michigan Tech, that should tell you something.

Michigan State was great on defense last year (the best in Izzo's tenure) but struggle on offense. Izzo has some athleticism injected into this year's lineup with Lucas and Summers plus a couple of great players in Neitzel and Morgan. Will that lead to a Big Ten title?

PG - Travis Walton - described by Sports Illustrated as 'ultra-tough' and the man who 'rules the locker room.' ''He is becoming one of the best leaders we've ever had,'' says Coach Izzo. In last season's upset of Wisconsin Walton chipped in 13 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds. Walton is unknown by much of the Big Ten fandome but he is clearly the spoon that stirs the drink for the spartans.

SG - Drew Neitzel (pictured right)- Big Ten preseason POY and an All-American (preseason). Neitzel is a fun player to watch, he scores, he distributes and he leads. He has a shot that is incredibly quick and his footwork is reallyfun to watch. As was seen at times last year he can absolutely take over a game as he nearly single handedly beat Ohio State in Columbus. He should have more help in the backcourt allowing him to keep his legs fresh and his

SF - Raymar Morgan - uber talented 'slasher'. Morgan can play either forward spot and defend great regardless of who he is defending. He is tough and rebounds, but can he start to take on even more of the scoring load? I think he'll have to.

PF - Marquise Gray - 6'8" and athletic, Gray is one of the 4 returning posts for MSU. That is a good thing, except that none were consistently able to help on the offensive end. Gray is the most talented and the most inconsistent. His consistent scoring will probably be the biggest factor in the spartans running to a Big Ten title.

C - Goran Suton - the team's leading returning rebounder and 3rd leading scorer. That is nice to have returning but to go with his 9.3 ppg and 6.7 rpg he also contributed a team high 90 turnovers. Word is that he had a great offseason and has greatly improved. Time will tell.

Key Bench - Kalin Lucas - backup PG who is VERY quick. Lucas' ability to give good minutes off the bench will be a huge gift to Walton and Neitzel as their legs will be fresher to finish games.
Key Bench - Durrell Summers - another offensively gifted freshman who will give a spark off the bench and take pressure off the forwards and eat up quality minutes. Summers is 6'5" and very good at slashing to the lane and creating off the dribble.
Key Bench - Chris Allen - this scoring freshman (great shooter) should be a big boost of offense off the bench.
Key Bench - Drew Naymick - 6'10" senior center and the only other senior besides Neitzel. Naymick may start at center but I'll put him as a key big man off the bench. The team's best interior defender will see a lot of playing time and will likely finish more games than he starts.

Prediction - Michigan State brings back a very talented team and has an infuse of offensively talented freshmen to share the load (without having to carry the burden). They have the makings of a Final Four team with a dynamic, scoring guard and a team that plays great defense on the perimeter and in the paint.

Based on scheduling and their early struggles I don't see them winning the Big Ten regular season. But come tourney time look out as MSU will cut down the nets in Indianapolis and earn the Big Ten's automatic bid into the NCAA Tourney.

Officially? 13-5.

Links accross Gopher Nation (and beyond)

Big Ten Coaches, South Park style - Anything Hoosier is to thank for this hilarious link. Tressell is pretty funny.


Goldy in Playboy - Now we know what that big toothy grin is for. PB: What do you do to them (other mascots)? Goldy: I lay down the law. I just took care of Bucky -- put him right through a card table.


NACDA Director's Cup has the Gophers sitting 14th overall, standings are yet to include Men's Golf and baseball, both of which should improve our standing.



Michigan State's new unis - what not green pants with green tops? Photo is courtesy of the Spartan Tailgate


Buckeye Banter's caption THIS - I think the pic must be from 2005 and these guys just finished watching Gary Russel run the Gophers into FG range.


How to be a Notre Dame fan from the 50-Yard Lion (by way of BCEagles.com) - In the spirit of full disclosure I should note that I am a closet ND fan. My path is not on the chart, but my recent interest in the Fighting Irish is due to amazing experiences in South Bend (Michigan-04, USC-05, UCLA-06).


Stocco is waiting for that Packer phone call - courtesy of Bucky's Blog