Big Ten Basketball - FINALLY!

And we have reached 2008 which means we can finally watch some Big Ten Basketball (at least those of you with BTN can watch).

HERE was my Big Ten Preseason Preview. For the most part I'm sticking with my predictions. If I would change anything I'd bump Mich St. from 3rd to 2nd and I'd bump Penn State to 8th ahead of Michigan. But I still have Wisconsin winning it all and Michigan State taking the B10 Tourney.

After a dozen or so non-conference games this is what the conference rankings look like...

	Records	KenPom Rank	RPI	SOS	AP Poll
Michigan St	12-1	14	12	52	6
Wisconsin	10-2	4	15	27	25
Ohio St	9-3	42	23	19
Indiana	11-1	11	44	195	11
Minnesota	10-2	32	50	198
Illinois	8-5	35	113	96
Penn St	8-4	70	135	173
Purdue	9-4	83	147	227
Michigan	4-8	139	183	35
Northwestern	5-4	176	187	172
Iowa	7-6	153	235	252

I don't think that very many people will argue that the conference breaks down into 3 distinct groups. The likelihood that any teams will move up or down is pretty slim, here is how it breaks down...

NCAA Tourney Teams (Wis, MichSt, Ind, Ohio St)

These teams would really have to screw things up to fall out of the Tourney. Michigan State and Wisconsin are both balanced, well coached, deep and has enough star power that they could make a run deep into March. Indiana has the star power and they could easily ride Air Gordon and shoot their way into the 2nd weekend but I see 2nd round upset written on this team. Ohio State has been inconsistent thus far but I like their young talent with a couple experienced leaders and a scoring post. This team could fall to the bubble or make a deep run, they are just hard to get a handle on at this point.

Bubble Team = NIT (Minn, Pur, Ill)

This is the mediocre middle. If one of these three teams can separate and get a win or two from the first group they might have a happy Selection Sunday. My money is on all 3 heading to the NIT and the Big Ten only taking 4 teams to the Big Dance.

Minnesota has three things going for it. Tubby Smith, 3 experienced & talented seniors and Tubby Smith. Playing well on the road has been a serious issue dating back to last season's 1-10 road record, getting to 10 conference wins will be tough especially if they have to go 9-0 at home. Purdue is talented but young. They beat a ranked Louisville and played ranked Clemson to within 3 on the road. But losses to Wofford and Iowa State, both at home, are resume killers. The Boilermaker defense has been very good but their inability to score will be a problem. Illinois is another team that has been up and down. The Illini took Arizona to OT, beat Missouri and OK St but then lost to Miami(OH) and Tenn State!? From my perspective Illinois is treated like a team destined for the tourney but they aren't playing like they belong. They rebound well and they have played solid defense but they don't shoot well.

If we start looking at resumes now here is my take...

Minnesota - no bad losses, no good wins, needs 10-8 in Big Ten and a B10 Tourney win
Purdue - 2 bad losses (Woff and ISU), 1 good win, 10-8 might get them in, 11-7 would
Illinois - 2-bad losses (Miami(OH) and TennSt), decent win over Missouri, needs 12-6 conference record and would get in

Fighting for .500 and NIT - (Penn St, Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa)

This is the bottom 4 and should remain that way. If anybody moves up it would likely be Penn State. Geary Claxton is REALLY good but the one man show wasn't enough against teams like Rider and Central Florida so I don't expect much different in conference play. Northwestern is getting their best player back on the floor and they are hopeful that will make a difference but not much. One guy can only do so much and he hasn't been playing with his teammates all year there just isn't time for adjusting. Michigan and Iowa are really in their own group. I'd call it the Tim Brewster group. New coach trying to implement a new system that just doesn't jive with the roster. Michigan offers some talent while Iowa is in complete free fall.

Penn St = NIT
the rest = nothing

My deeper thoughts on Minnesota will come in the next couple days.

Early Games to Watch

none: nobody in the top 4 play each other till Jan. 15th (OSU v MSU)

Big Ten Basketball Preview

So, I have all 11 previews out there and here is my official prediction. I know this isn't the exact order I previewed the teams, and this may contradict some of what I wrote. But after examining all teams, this is my final answer.

National consensus is that the Big Ten is down. As far as producing an eventual national champ that may be true. But I think there are 4 teams that will steadily improve and all are likely Sweet 16 teams. So much of tourney success depends on matchups and injuries, but the top 4 teams are very talented and balanced. They will be very good and very hard to knock out in March.

After those 4 teams I see 3 more that will be fighting for a tourney birth. Purdue has some serious upside, Minnesota has experience and Illinois is used to winning.

The bottom 4 are pretty solid in my opinion. Penn State and Michigan have a chance to move up and surprise some teams but next season looks better for them.

1. Wisconsin (14-4)
   
2. Indiana (13-5)
   
3. Michigan State (13-5)
   
4. Ohio State (13-5)
   
5. Purdue (9-9)
   
6. Minneota (9-9)
   
7. Illinois (8-10)
   
8. Michigan (6-12)
   
9. Penn State (5-13)
   
10. Northwestern (5-13)
    
11. Iowa (4-14)
    

All Big Ten Team

G - Drew Neitzel - MSU
G - Michael Flowers - Wis
F - Geary Claxton - PSU
F - Shaun Pruitt - Ill
C - DJ White - Ind

2nd Team

G - Lawrence McKenzie - Min
G - Jamar Butler - OSU
F - DeShawn Sims - Mich
F - Raymar Morgan - MSU
C - Brian Butch - Wis


All Freshman Team

G - Eric Gordon - Ind
G - E'Twuan Moore - Pur
F - John Diebler - OSU
F - Manny Harris - Mich
C - Koufos - OSU

Big Ten Preview Links

CBS Sportsline Big Ten Preview
Rivals.com Big Ten Outlook
Basketball Prospectus PART 1, PART 2
College Hoops.net Top 25 Players in the Big Ten
College Basketball Reference Big Ten Preview

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Wisconsin

I'll be honest, there probably isn't a team in the Big Ten that I respect more than the Badgers AND there isn't a team in the Big Ten I'd rather see be the first to go 0-18. I was a big fan of Dick Bennett and have been impressed with how Bo Ryan has continued incredible success while never landing top 5 recruiting classes.

After a 30 win season the Badgers have lost their starting PG and their All-American forward Alando Tucker. These seem like losses too big to overcome but the Badgers have plenty of talent waiting and ready to keep the current run of success going.

Bo Ryan's "Swing Offense" has been very effective and hard for Big Ten teams to defend. Most other offensive systems have strengths that they force you to defend, they then just plan on executing better than you can defend. The Swing Offense seems to find your defensive weakness and exploit that to it's fullest. His teams always value smart players over Rivals star rankings. Of course having NBA talent on your roster who are also savvy basketball players is a bonus and why this team won 30 games a year ago. Gone is the 1st round talent, but the roster is full of size, experience and the unquantifiable basketball saviness.

PG - Trevon Hughes - Hughest might be the key to just how successful the Badgers will be. If the sophomore can handle the PG duties that will allow Flowers to be the scoring guard that he is. He is very quick and has good ball handling skills but whether or not he can handle going from just over 7 min to 24+ will be a very important question to be answered.

SG - Michael Flowers - the senior and leader of this Badger team earned his stripes as a top-notch defender. But last season Flowers began to show his offensive skill set. He is a proven shooter but whether or not he can penetrate and score remains to be seen. Count on Flowers to be an All-Big Ten selection in his senior season.

SF - Joe Krabbenhoft - Michigan State coach, Tom Izzo says that Krabbenhoft is ''one of those players who can do everything well, and they're hard to find.'' It is always nice to get compliments from your coach, but when another coach gives that kind of praise that should really boost your confidence. For a player who does everything well he is going to have to take it another step this year. Joe will need to improve his game and take on more responsibility this season to contribute to another run to the NCAA Tourney for Wisconsin.

PF - Marcus Landry - yet another very talented kid who is stepping into the limelight for the first time. This junior is very gifted who can shoot the 3 and play inside as he led the team in blocks. Landry could become the team's most talented player who scares defenses, if not he'll still be a player that the Badgers will use to exploit an opponents weakness.

C - -Brian Butch - Nobody would have guessed it going into the season but Butch was the key to their entire season. Of course the loss of Taylor or Tucker would have ended their season abruptly, but the loss of Butch down the stretch led to a 2nd round upset at the hands of UNLV. Wisconsin fans will tell you the Final Four was a certainty had Butch been healthy. That was last year and Butch is back. The senior center should combo with Flowers to be a top inside-out duo. Butch will have to answer 2 important questions. 1-can he stay healthy? 2-Can he carry the load without true stars absorbing the defensive focus?

Key Bench - Greg Stiemsma - senior big man who will probably start some games when Ryan want to go with more size upfront. Stiemsma is one of the best big men off the bench in the league.
Key Bench - Brian Bohannon - sophomore scoring guard who could be primed for a big year. With Taylor and Tucker gone there are more shots to go around and Bohannon could really take some of the perimeter scoring load off Flowers' back.
Key Bench - Keaton Nankivil - a big and physically mature freshman PF who likely will get his chance to play in this frontcourt full of skilled big men.
Key Bench - John Leuer - a skilled 6'10" freshman from Minnesota who figures to help the Badgers this season. Led all scorers in the Badgers exhibition win over Edgewood College.

Prediction - I'm sure there will be more guys who contribute on a regular basis for the Badgers but those first 7 appear to be the ones who will carry the biggest load.

It comes down to this, it is a bad idea to pick against Bo Ryan. He has a team of smart basketball players are also very skilled. You have a handful of good shooters in the front and backcourt. He has size and he has experience. They lost 3 starters but they returned everyone else.

I expect slight improvement from everybody on the roster and a bigger step forward from Landry and Bohannon. They will be hard to guard with a roster that will get balanced scoring from any number of sources and coaches in the Big Ten know just how hard it is to score on the Badgers defense.

The consensus seems to be that Wisconsin will finish about 4th in the Big Ten. I hate to do it but they are my pick to finish 1st in the regular season. With unbalanced schedule they only play Ohio State and Michigan State once. So of the 6 potential games against the other top teams (Ind, MSU, OSU) they dump 2 of them. I see a 14-4 finish and 1st place.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Indiana

A year ago the Hoosiers brought one of the country's best coaches to the Big Ten. The Gophers are following in the Hoosier's footsteps, except Sampson brought baggage along with him. Recruiting violations have followed him from Oklahoma to Indiana. In the offseason and as he head into the regular season this seems like a big deal (including the dismissal quitting of an assistant coach) but the Hoosiers are poised to make a run at the conference title and by mid-January I don't think recruiting calls will even a minor story.

The Hoosiers return arguably the most talented player in the conference, PF--DJ White and they are brining in arguably the most talented freshman in the country, SG--Eric Gordon giving them a dangerous inside out combo. Add to that a PG who learned on the ropes as a freshman, a talented JUCO transfer on the wing and a couple other top 125 incoming freshmen and this team could win it's first Big Ten Title in 15 seasons.

PG - Armon Bassett - started 24 games as a freshman last season and flew under the radar because of the other talented freshman PG in the conference (perhaps you heard of Mike Conley Jr?). Bassett averaged 9.5 ppg and showed some moxy as he led all Hoosier scoreres with 16 AT Cameron Indoor Stadium.

SG - Eric Gordon - this super talented freshman appears to be the key for the Hoosiers this year. If he lives up to the hype this is a top 10 team, if he struggles through freshman hiccups it will be another middle seed in the tourney and possibly a 1 weekend trip for the Hoosiers. Gordon has good size, a quick first step and deadly outside range. If coach Sampson lets him loose he could be the talk of the Big Ten this year.

SF - Jamarcus Ellis - JUCO transfer and player of the year. Last year at Chipola JC he led the team in scoring, rebounding and assists. This complete player could really help the Hoosiers and be the oil that keeps this machine running smooth. Of his issues that plagued him in high school could follow rear it's head in the spotlight that is Hoosier basketball.

PF - Lance Stemler - senior who does the dirty work. Role player, intangibles guy, hard hat, name your cliche here. Stemler is a solid player who has put some weight on but is still one of the Hoosiers most dangerous 3-point shooters.

C - DJ White (pictured right) - My pick for conference player of the year. Rather than go pro, White was pursuaded to return and lead the Hoosiers to the it's first Big Ten Championship since the 1992-93 season! White the best big man in the league and I think he will increase his 13.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg by a significant margin this season.

Key Bench - Jordan Crawford - Freshman, scoring guard who can get into the lane
Key Bench - AJ Ratlif - Senior guard, good shooter and adds experience to the bench
Key Bench - Deandre Thomas - BIG man (nearly 300 lbs)
Key Bench - Brandon McGee - freshman forward, good size and a jumpshot

Prediction - a tough but not crazy non-conference schedule (@SoIll, Kentucky and GTech) should have the Hoosiers ready to handle the Big Ten. I love their balance of talent with the pro prospect in the middle and a number of athletic guards capable of scoring in different ways. Depth in the frontcourt could become an issue as White and Stemler have had injury issues in the past. Indiana will be right in that mix for 2nd place in the regular season. Officially I have them at 13-5 (along with MSU and OSU). If I have to pick, they'll finish 2nd.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Michigan State

Everybody's favorite pick to be Big Ten Champs. Hard to argue against Coach Izzo and his spartans. They are the only team with a .500 record or better who return all 5 starters. But does 5 returners from an 8-8 team automatically make them better than the rest of the league? I'm not sold. Exhibition games are usually meaningless and a loss in these games is usually a fluke. But when MSU loses to Grand Valley State and then really struggles with Michigan Tech, that should tell you something.

Michigan State was great on defense last year (the best in Izzo's tenure) but struggle on offense. Izzo has some athleticism injected into this year's lineup with Lucas and Summers plus a couple of great players in Neitzel and Morgan. Will that lead to a Big Ten title?

PG - Travis Walton - described by Sports Illustrated as 'ultra-tough' and the man who 'rules the locker room.' ''He is becoming one of the best leaders we've ever had,'' says Coach Izzo. In last season's upset of Wisconsin Walton chipped in 13 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds. Walton is unknown by much of the Big Ten fandome but he is clearly the spoon that stirs the drink for the spartans.

SG - Drew Neitzel (pictured right)- Big Ten preseason POY and an All-American (preseason). Neitzel is a fun player to watch, he scores, he distributes and he leads. He has a shot that is incredibly quick and his footwork is reallyfun to watch. As was seen at times last year he can absolutely take over a game as he nearly single handedly beat Ohio State in Columbus. He should have more help in the backcourt allowing him to keep his legs fresh and his

SF - Raymar Morgan - uber talented 'slasher'. Morgan can play either forward spot and defend great regardless of who he is defending. He is tough and rebounds, but can he start to take on even more of the scoring load? I think he'll have to.

PF - Marquise Gray - 6'8" and athletic, Gray is one of the 4 returning posts for MSU. That is a good thing, except that none were consistently able to help on the offensive end. Gray is the most talented and the most inconsistent. His consistent scoring will probably be the biggest factor in the spartans running to a Big Ten title.

C - Goran Suton - the team's leading returning rebounder and 3rd leading scorer. That is nice to have returning but to go with his 9.3 ppg and 6.7 rpg he also contributed a team high 90 turnovers. Word is that he had a great offseason and has greatly improved. Time will tell.

Key Bench - Kalin Lucas - backup PG who is VERY quick. Lucas' ability to give good minutes off the bench will be a huge gift to Walton and Neitzel as their legs will be fresher to finish games.
Key Bench - Durrell Summers - another offensively gifted freshman who will give a spark off the bench and take pressure off the forwards and eat up quality minutes. Summers is 6'5" and very good at slashing to the lane and creating off the dribble.
Key Bench - Chris Allen - this scoring freshman (great shooter) should be a big boost of offense off the bench.
Key Bench - Drew Naymick - 6'10" senior center and the only other senior besides Neitzel. Naymick may start at center but I'll put him as a key big man off the bench. The team's best interior defender will see a lot of playing time and will likely finish more games than he starts.

Prediction - Michigan State brings back a very talented team and has an infuse of offensively talented freshmen to share the load (without having to carry the burden). They have the makings of a Final Four team with a dynamic, scoring guard and a team that plays great defense on the perimeter and in the paint.

Based on scheduling and their early struggles I don't see them winning the Big Ten regular season. But come tourney time look out as MSU will cut down the nets in Indianapolis and earn the Big Ten's automatic bid into the NCAA Tourney.

Officially? 13-5.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Ohio State

This is a hard preview to write. Every other preview out there starts with who is gone (something called Oden?) and how there are stud freshmen stepping in their shoes. It is true that there is another solid recruiting class coming on the heels of Oden/Conley/Cook, but I don't think this is an apples to apples comparison. Oden was a once in a decade kind of center, Conley was a top 5 player as well and Cook was top 25. That isn't just a great class that is an amazing class. The 2007 newcomers are also very good and highly rated but not quite in the same 'class' as last year's group. I could be wrong but I don't see any of the new freshmen as lottery picks in next summer's draft.

Anyway, there is still talent on this roster with Butler, Hunter and Lighty returning to go with this new class of talent. On the bright side Matta and staff will be used to teaching the A,B,C's of Buckeye basketball. Here is what the Buckeye's will look like.

PG - Jamar Butler - the only returning starter from last season's national runner-up. Butler will probably be given the opportunity to lead this team and make it his. An unselfish player who will team with Hunter to bring along the newcomers and attempt to lead them to great success once again.

SG - David Lighty - great defender and works hard at improving his game. Lighty didn't play much to start the year but eventually was a valuable contributor in the NCAA Tourney. How well he steps from a role player to a key member will be a big question for Ohio State.

SF - Jon Diebler - Ohio's all time leading scorer in high school and led the nation last year looks to be an immediate impact on the wing and maybe at the point when Butler has to sit. Diebler is a gunner and will likely shoot a LOT of 3's this year. He will be an exciting player to watch but I wonder how the grind of the Big Ten season will wear on this young body.

PF - Othello Hunter (pictured right) - He and Butler will provide the experience that should help ease the transition of the new players. Hunter is

C - Kosta Koufos - will be a lottery pick, maybe 2008 or for certain 2009. Koufos is a scorer and an all around good basketball player. Coming in right behind Oden will be an ugly shadow to start your career in but he has put in 15 and 20 in Ohio State's 2 exhibition games so hopefully he can become his own player.

Key Bench - Matt Terwilliger - 6'9" F/C, junior, kind of unknown as he was buried behind Oden and Hunter last year. Needs to become more productive and consistent.
Key Bench - Eric Wallace - 6'5" freshman, strong rebounder.
Key Bench - Evan Turner - 6'6" freshman, excellent defender and scorer. Through the 2 exhibition games Turner played the most min off the bench.
Key Bench - PJ Hill - JUCO transfer who will see time as the backup PG. Has won his high school's state championship and a JUCO national championship in consecutive years. Wouldn't it be a feat to win that next big championship?

Prediction - there are a lot of newcomers with tremendous talent on this team. But what will really help this team is their returning experienced players. What gets lost in the hoopla surrounding their 2nd straight outstanding recruiting class is the fact that they are starting 2 seniors and a talented sophomore who has been tourney tested. Butler, Hunter and Lighty will ease the transition of Koufos, Diebler, Wallace and Turner.

Ultimately this team isn't as good as last year (for now). I think they'll finish a tight 4th place at 13-5 in the league. By the time March comes around they could be one of the most dangerous teams in the country.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Minnesota

I have already put out a Gopher Preview, but this where I am going to insert the Gophers. Anyway, I think the Gophers are the sleeper team in the Big Ten this year. 2 primary factors play into this theory (the 3rd factor is my maroon beer as I wear my gold glasses)...

1. Tubby Smith - 14 year run of 20 win season. 20 wins is not likely to happen but he'll get close and get to the tourney.
2. Experienced roster returning that actually has some talent.

There are a few players on this team who are very talented, they will all be improved with a better offensive system and a full offseason learning to be better/smarter basketball players.

PG - Al Nolen (pictured right) - Nolen may not be the starter for game 1, but by the time the Big Ten season rolls around I anticipate he'll be starting at PG to let McKenzie do more scoring. Nolen is stronger, quicker and a better shooter than I was anticipating. I think that what was supposed to be our biggest hole will be solidified by Nolen and backup Westbrook.

SG - Lawrence McKenzie - the most talented player on the team and 2nd team All-Big Ten (preseason). Mckenzie came back to Minnesota after jumping to play at Oklahoma. The 5th year senior looks primed to carry the scoring load and lead this team back to the NCAA Tournament.

SF - Jamal Abu-Shamal - Here is our weak spot. I am not a fan of Abu-Shamala, but to his credit the wallk-on has carved out a nice spot in the lineup and does have skills that contribute. JAS was named by Rivals as the best shooter in the Big Ten and the kid does a lot of little things to help the Gophers. Unfortunately he is lacking foot speed, can't create his own shot and struggles to guard quicker players. Hopefully this Tubby offense can find opportunities for him to stretch the defense.

PF - Dan Coleman - Coleman pairs with Tollackson to be one of the best frontcourts in the league. Coleman initially went to Boston College before returning home to Minnesota. The PF averaged 14.2 ppg and 6 rpg last season. He has added some muscle and will look to increase his consistency. Coleman has the ability to beat you in the post and take you outside and hit the 3. His size and versatility make him hard to guard and he will have to gameplanned for.

C - Spencer Tollackson - maybe the best big man in the conference that you've never heard of. Tollackson is a very effective (but not dominant) center in the Big Ten. He defends well, he rebounds well, he can score with post moves or using his nice touch around the rim. His value to the team was realized last year when the Gophers went completely into the tank when Tollackson missed 8 games due to injury.

Key Bench - Lawrence Westbrook - the guard who averaged 40 ppg (or something like that) in high school struggled last year but has been very consistent in the gophers 2 exhibition games, giving the team some depth at the guard position. If he can keep turnovers down, he'll see a lot of playing time.
Key Bench - Jon Willaims - 6'9" center, lacks offensive skills but rebounds and defends very well. Won't be confused with a starting center but is very solid off the bench.
Key Bench - Kevin Payton - 6'4" PG who lacks footspeed on defense. I've never been impressed but he will play and hopefully create offensive matchup problems for opposing defenses. At times he really helps the team and other times he loses his man on defense or has a rash of turnovers. Consistency would lead to more minutes but I don't see it.
Key Bench - Damian Johnson - long and lanky SF. Johnson has tremendous shot blocking ability but often gets lost on defense.
Key Bench - Blake Hoffarber - Minnesota's Mr. Basketball, excellent shooter but may struggle in his first Big Ten season.

Prediction - everything should be improved from a year ago. Last season's train wreck was deceptive. This team had talent but a few heartbreaking losses, an early season coaching change and some key injuries killed this team.

Last year's team struggled to defend, had no flow on offense and didn't rebound. In my view it was a classic situation of utilizing the talent they had. It was a terrible offense and a passive defense. I fully expect Tubby to push these guys like they haven't been pushed before and I am counting on more production from their 3 core players. Through the exhibition season (which I know isn't an exact science) they are much more aggressive defensively, they are attacking the rebounds and they have a much more balanced offense that is leading to point.

The Tubby factor weighs heavily in my prediction of 6th in the league and an NCAA Tournament birth.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Michigan

Michigan is one of 3 Big Ten Schools with a new head coach. Coach Beilein brings a unique offensive system to Michigan. It has elements of the Princeton offense but it isn't as complex. In a nutshell they spread you out and it is important that everyone can shoot (even big men, think Kevin Pittsnogle!). That is the interesting piece to this year's Michigan puzzle. They weren't the worst shooting team in the Big Ten but finishing ahead of Northwestern isn't anything to brag about.

I am never a fan of teams that employ a zone as a primary defense, but I am a fan of teams that switch things up. Beilein will move between a 1-3-1 and a 2-3 to keep offenses off balance. This I like and those zones are very different in how they attempt to slow down and knock offenses off rhythm. The 2-3 is your traditional zone that attempts to cut down penetration and the outside shot. The problem is if you run it for more than several possessions teams find your holes and scoring becomes easy. The 1-3-1 is a defense that defends passing lanes and most offenses are not as prepared to find the holes in this zone. Before I break into Xs and Os, the point is that changing things up is great and keeps offenses off balance.

PG - Jarret Smith -good PG with a solid jump shot. Described as a distributor and a role player who needs to do more. Beside's shooting woes, turnovers contributed to Michigan's slide after an 11-1 start to the season. Smith will play a pivotal role in reversing that trend.

SG - Ron Coleman - Coleman could start as a big SG or move to SF and Morris or Harris becomes the SG. Coleman is the lone senior on scholarship and will have to step up his game to lead by example.

SF - DeShawn Sims (pictured right) - former Mr. Basketball in Michigan (2006), currently a sophomore who could have a breakout season. Beilein believes Sims is an excellent shooter with range so expect Sims to be a primary scorer on this Michigan team. In their exhibition game Sims was the only player to attempt more than 4 shots from behind the arc connecting on 3/6 to finish with 14 points. He is a good pick for your B10 fantasy basketball team (I kid, I kid).

PF - Ekpe Udoh - 6'10" sophomore who really was better than expected as a freshman. Last year's 6th man who averaged 5 ppg, 4 rpg and 2 blocks. Not sure how he'll fit into Beilein's offensive system, but he is a talented big man who can really alter things in the paint. May come off the bench and Morris will slide into the starting lineup. That will make Michigan smaller but also a better shooting team.

C - Zach Gibson -6'10" soph, transfer from Rutgers. Started in team's exhibition game. Adds some size to the lineup, but I don't know much about Gibson.

Key Bench - K'Len Morris -redshirt freshman scoring guard. Morris is a scorer and will probably be given every opportunity to grow into Beilein's system. Started exhibition game last week.
Key Bench - Manny Harris - another Michigan Mr. Basketball (2007) is a slasher and scorer. Another decent freshman who will contribute a lot.
Key Bench - Anthony Wright - redshirted freshman from Oak Hill Academy. The 6'6" F will be a key frontcourt player off the bench for the Wolverines. Another nice piece but young.
Key Bench - Jevohn Shepherd - 6'5" junior wing
Key Bench - Kelvin Grady - 5'11" freshman PG

Prediction - Questions about PG and talent in the paint lead me to a less than rosey picture for Michigan basketball. Ultimately what jumps out at me is "square pegs (Michigan roster) and round hole (Beilein's system)." The experienced players don't really fit Beilein's system and those who do are young and unproven. I think given time Michigan can once again be a factor in the Big Ten, but losing 4 starters from a team that finished 8-8 in conference last year means a step backwards to me.

They'll benefit from only playing MichSt and Indiana only once each but I'm still calling a 6-12 season for the Wolverines. 0-6 against the top 4 teams then splitting with the rest of the league sounds about right to me.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Illinois

Illini fans will lament that last season was difficult. The rest of the Big Ten did not take time to feel bad for them as they still finished 5th in conference and earned another trip the NCAA Tourney. This team will boast a very good frontcourt, but the questions will be asked about the guard play.

PG - Chester Frazier - junior PG who is the heart of the team.

SG - Demetri McCamey - freshman combo guard who could really provide this team with a spark.

SF - Calvin Brock - big guard who may start in the small forward position.

PF - Brian Randle - 6'8" senior who will combine with Pruitt to be one of (if not THE) best frontcourt in the league. When healthy Randle is one of the best in the country, but health has been his biggest concern.

C - Shaun Pruitt (pictured right)- All-Big Ten preseason selection and will be the key to Illinois' season.

Key Bench - Trent Meacham - stable guard who provides a serious outside shooting threat
Key Bench - Rodney Alexander - big man, JUCO transfer
Key Bench - Brian Carlwell - 6'11" big man who is recovering from a serious car accident mid-season last year.

Prediction - Not a lot stands out to me about this team. Bruce Weber has done a great job in his short tenure at Illinois but this team seems to be lacking dynamic players in the backcourt and overall depth. I like Randle and Pruitt in the paint but after that there isn't a ton to get excited about. I expect this team to be steady but my gut tells me they are not an NCAA tournament team.

I am saying 7-11 with an 8th place finish in conference. The Illini will be especially hindered by the fact that they play NU and Iowa only once in Big Ten Play. I see a certain 8 losses to the top 4 teams (Wis, Ind, OSU, MSU) then a solid but not flashy 7-4 vs. the rest of the league. A down year in Champaign and time for Coach Weber to show he can recruit to keep the the Illini at the top of the conference.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Purdue

There is some serious excitement in West Lafayette. Coach Matt Painter has brought in the most talented recruiting class since the days of the "Big Dog" Glenn Robinson (and this may be better). Rivals ranked 7th nationally with 4 top 100 players. There are at least 5 talented freshmen who will contribute heavily to the Boilermakers this year. After a successful 22 win season and a contested 2nd round NCAA loss to the eventual nation champions there is reason for optimism.

What is lost in all of this hoopla is what has been lost. Only 2 starters are lost but those 2 (Landry and Teague) accounted for nearly half of Purdue's scoring. That is a LOT of experience and scoring that they have to replace. Along with the scoring Purdue has also lost their top 3 rebounders. So while there is significant talent coming in, they have some big holes to fill.

PG - Chris Kramer - Here is the most experienced player returning, and Kramer is a soph. He was on the Big Ten All-Defensive team as a freshman so there is some serious talent here. Purdue fans should be wary that Kramer had surgery this offseason and nagging injuries last year, but assuming he is healthy Kramer is a potential All-Big Ten player.

SG - E'Twaun Moore - beat Eric Gordon's team in the Indiana State Championships scoring 28 points. Moore is the most highly rated freshman of this great recruiting class and will be given every opportunity to be a playmaker for Purdue. I think people will be quick to use Mike Conley Jr's breakout freshman season as an example of what you can expect to see from Moore. But Moore is missing a guy like Greg Oden who is a once in 10 years type of freshman post player. How good will he be? I don't know but it will be fun to watch.

G - Keaton Grant - did not show up in their exhibition opener because he is suspended through the regular season opener, but it is expected that the returning guard will likely be a starter. Grant is a scorer who will likely get more opportunities to score now that Teague and Landry are gone.

F - Robbie Hummell - 6'7" freshman who started in the exhibition game on 11/6. Hummell is the guy who will rebound well, pass well and do the little things necessary to help the team win.

C - JaJuan Johnson - also started in initial exhibition game, this 6'10" lanky freshman has been called a real steal by coach Matt Painter. How well the 210 lb freshman will hold up in Big Ten play will be an interesting sub-plot in the story of how successful this team can be.

Key Bench - Tarrance Crump - here is your lone senior on the team. Crump is fast and will likely be a key player off the bench to impact the game by changing the pace of the game.
Key Bench - Scott Martin (pictured right) - good shooter and scoring freshman. 6'8", who will be relied upon to pick up the scoring load I'm sure.
Key Bench - Marcus Green - 3-pt shooting, junior
Key Bench - Gordan Watt - not on the current roster, I don't know what the story is but if he is on the team he will be a very valuable wing who started 33/34 games last season.
Key Bench - Nemanja Calasan - 6'9" Bosnian forward who is waiting to be declared eligible to play. The JUCO transfer will be important to helping in the middle.

Prediction - There is some serious young talent on this team, but 2 things concern me. 1-is the size, this team may really struggle to defend the paint. 2-experience, making up for 33 points lost is really tough to do with a combination of freshmen. With that said I really like their athleticism and their ability to defend the perimeter with speed and physicalness.

Purdue will finish the Big Ten season somewhere in the 8-10 win range. They are another team that could really come out and make me look bad with this prediction. I referenced it above but I get the feeling that Boilermaker fans are subconsciously thinking they will be this year's Ohio State. But I think they are lacking the experience Ohio State had and while their freshman class is really good, it isn't a class with 3 one-and-done players who will be drafted in the first round.

Ultimately this is a growing season for the Boilermakers and next season could be something really special. Purdue finishes 7th makes a nice run in the NIT (bubble team though). At this point I think Purdue fans will be disappointed with a finish like this, but in the long run I think they'll benefit from a few stuggles and a run of wins in the NIT.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Penn State

UPDATE: PSU blogger Black Shoe Diaries has a thorough preview. After further review (not BSD's preview) I am calling PSU to be 6-12 and finish tied with Michigan for 8th/9th place.

A year ago Penn State came into the season with high expectations. They were returning 4 starters from a 6-10 team (in conference) and were ready to make some noise in the Big Ten. Nobody told them that if you don't play defense you don't win in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions were last defensively in the conference and finished 2-14.

This year they return 3 starters and again are optimistic. Their optimism stems from the return of Geary Claxton who is the Big Ten's leading returning rebounder (8.0) and 2nd scorer (16.3). To go with Claxton they also return Jamelle Cornley, David Jackson returns from a medical redshirt and other talented but young players.

Can they make the jump from a last place team to a competitive Big Ten team in 1 year? Probably not but here are the kids who will look to improve on last years debacle.

PG - Talor Battle - Like their 2-14 partner, Northwestern, Penn State will likely start the season with a freshman PG. The downside is that he is replacing an experienced starter who graduated, the upside is that Battle has more athleticism and quickness than his predecessor. Battle was a dynamic scorer in his senior season and will look to infuse an offensive spark into PSU. The question is can he help to upgrade the Nittany Lion defense?

SG - Stanley Pringle - anther new face to the starting line-up. Pringle should also upgrade the speed and athletic ability of the PSU backcourt. This JUCO transfer is really fast and will hopefully be able to use that speed to apply some defensive pressure to opposing guards.

SF- Geary Claxton - an NBA talent who will likely lead the team in scoring and rebounding. But can he use his talent to lead this team to more wins? Often lower tier teams have players with outstanding numbers because somebody has to score, but can Claxton get it done on the defensive end and offensively play with the other 4 guys to get Ws?

PF - Jamelle Cornley - The 2006 Big Ten Freshman of the year had a solid sophomore season as well. But Conley, like Claxton needs to improve defensively as he continues to mature as a basketball player.

C - Brandon Hassell - athletic, strong but thin big man. Hassell could break out and have a big season. But here again the big question for Hassell and the rest of his teammates is can they put together a breakout defensive season? Along with stoping teams, Penn State had trouble rebounding the ball and that will rest partly on Hassell to improve.

Key Bench - Schyler King - JUCO transfer foward who will compete for playing time.
Key Bench - David Jackson - redshirted last season after an injury. Jackson is another forward who could start but likely will come off the bench for key minutes.
Key Bench - Andrew Jones - a redshirt freshman center who will hopefully add some size to this undersized frontcourt.
Key Bench - Jeff Brooks - a highly recruited wing who is in a situation where he could make an immediate impact in the Big Ten.

Prediction - Going from a season where they were unable to win just one road game and finished with only 2 conference wins, it is hard to imagine a season where Penn State makes a significant jump in the standings. They do have an outstanding player in Claxton and some other talented pieces. But a team that is young and needs to improve their defense as much as they need to improve seems to be too big of a leap.

I see a 5-13 conference season for the Nittany Lions. They have the potential to be the team that makes me look the worst. The talent is here to break out and win 6-8 games, but getting over the mental hump of a road win within the Big Ten and a team that relies on the 2-3 zone to stop teams just won't get a vote of confidence from me until they prove it first.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Iowa

The Hawkeyes are one of 3 Big Ten teams with a new coach. Unfortunate for Todd Lickliter is the fact that his team probably has the least talent of the three. The Hawkeyes did finish the season 9-7, but 3 of their top 4 scorers have left and their top 2 rebounders are gone, leaving this team with some serious holes to fill. Lickliter hopes to instill a new culture in Iowa City that involves, "just trying to do the right thing, treating people the way you want to be treated, wanting to compete, [and] having team success as the ultimate reward for your work.'' This what he refers to as "The Butler Way" (sounds to me like he might meet up with Denny on "The Highroad")

PG - Tony Freeman - the teams leading, returning scorer and best player seems primed to have a big junior season. Freeman is 2nd on the career scorer list at his former high school. 1st is somebody named Isaiah Thomas, so 2nd isn't so bad. He is a very good scorer and a reliable PG to boot. Last season he finished top 10 in the B10 in assists and ast:turnover ratio. If teams want to stop the Hawkeyes it will have to start here.

NOTE - Freeman has a foot injury which is expected to sideline him 4-6 weeks. OUCH

SG - Dan Bohall - sophomore guard who wasn't expected to start for the Hawkeyes but was one of the first five last week in their exhibition opener.

SF- Justin Johnson - played the most min and scored the most points in Iowa's exhibition blowout of DIII Simpson last week. Johnson shot 45.5% from behind the arc last year and should be a big piece of Coach Lickliter's offensive system that always gets open shots for it's shooters.

PF - Kurt Loobey - 6'10" senior who has some talent. Looby averaged only 3.8 ppg / 4.6 rpg but was 4th in the Big Ten in blocked shots. This season should be an opportunity for Loobey to greatly expand his numbers, but we'll see. It is always good to have experience and size in your frontcourt, we'll see how that translates to wins for Iowa.

C - Seth Gorney - started a little more than half of the Hawkeye's games last year. The 7-foot senior should be a nice, big presence in the paint. But man of this size who hasn't started consistently until his 4th year and is coming off a 5.5 ppg / 3.8 rpg season isn't exactly going to set the league on fire. It could be worse for the Hawkeyes but it isn't going to lead to immediate success for Coach Lickliter.

Key Bench - Cyrus Tate - Junior PF gives the Hawkeyes another experienced big man.
Key Bench - David Palmer - I guess the former president and friend of Jack Bauer is ready to contribute to the Hawkeyes this year. Palmer did not play last year as a transfer. He is yet another big body for Iowa and may have the most scoring abilities.
Key Bench - JR Angle - good shooter and good size, but lack of experience makes him an unkown
Key Bench - Jake Kelly - 6'6" SF, freshman who has been impressive to Coach Lickliter and staff.

Prediction - I don't hold out much hope for the Hawkeyes. They are kind of the antithesis of Northwestern. The Hawkeyes have plenty of upperclassmen on their roster but seem to be lacking in talent. They have some big bodies in the paint and they are led by a very good PG in Tony Freeman. The Hawkeye's success will come down to 2 things. 1-how far can Tony Freeman take them. He is going to have to put this team on his back at times and carry them. 2-how will will they defend. Coach Lickliter has a challenging but historically successful defensive system. The current roster is going to have to learn it fast and execute if flawlessly to remain competitive in the B10. Ultimately I see them fighting with Northwestern Penn State to stay out of 11th place.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Northwestern

I'd like to rip the Wildcats (and I will) but I should be careful. The last place team in conference who managed just 2 wins, earned one of those wins on the road in Minnesota. What used to be one of the toughest places to play in the league...well that's another topic. I guess the rest of the college basketball world knew this and I'm just now learning that Northwestern is the only BCS conference school who has NEVER been to the NCAA tournament. That is kind of sad really and sadder yet is that we'll be talking about this dubious streak again next year.

Coach Bill Carmody hasn't had the kind of success that Northwestern fans had hoped for when he brought the secretive and wiley Princeton offense to the Big Ten. What Carmody found was that the system doesn't matter when you are lacking in talent. The Wildcats are still lacking in talent but they do have a young nucleus that should be "more" talented than last year.

Northwestern isn't as bad as they are perceived. I've read a few Big Ten Previews that joke how you can pencil in the Wildcats as #11 every year. Not exactly true. Last season was an ugly 2-14, but the previous 3 seasons were 6-10, 6-10 and 8-8. Obviously not NCAA Tourney seasons but also not the bottom of the league. Here are the kids who will work to improve on last year's 2-14 and avoid the cellar for the 2nd straight season...

PG - Michael Thompson - smallish but talented incoming freshman. Incoming talent is a good thing for Northwestern but a freshman PG running a Princeton style offense is kind of scary. Thompson isn't exactly a 4 or 5 star recruit coming in, but he is an upgrade in talent and given time should be a solid guard in the league. Getting athletes that belong in the Big Ten is the first step and Thompson does meet this minimum qualification.

''I think I'm going to put the ball in that kid's hands,'' Carmody said. ''He'll never get you 20 [points] in a game, but he'll help you. He'll run the team. Tough as nails. Smart. Good decision-maker. And I think he'll be a good decision-maker right from the get-go. I'm not going to be afraid to let him take over, because I think we need somebody like that.''

Those are nice words to hear from your head coach before you ever step foot on the court in uniform. I look forward to watching Thompson this season.

SG - Craig Moore - here is some experience in the starting 5. Moore led the team in 3's last year and will need to increase those numbers this year. Extending the defense is a critical element of the Princeton offense so Moore needs to improve on his 32.8% from behind the arc to open things up for team's talented forwards.

SF - Jeff Ryan - talented sophomore who has the physical tools to be the best player on this team. As a freshman his outside shooting was awful, but like the rest of his team he worked very hard on his outside shooting to improve. Coach Carmody says that the 6'7" Ryan has incredible ball handling skills. Put that with his great work ethic and you have a kid who just might turn into a very good B10 player.

PF - Kevin Coble - Coble is the team's most talented player. As a freshman he started 28 games, was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman team and led the Wildcats in scoring(13.4) and rebounding(5.2). Not bad for a kid who wasn't all that highly recruited. Here are some interesting comments from his current coach...

''If you look at Coble's game, you say, 'Well, is he real fast? Not really. Is he real strong? Not really. Is he a great passer? Well, he's OK. Is he a great shooter? Eh.' '' Carmody said. ''But then you take the parts and the sum is greater than the parts.

Kind of funny how your best player isn't very strong, fast or isn't a great scorer or passer. Which probably makes him a perfect fit for the system he is in. A system that takes a great shooter, a great passer and a group of great decision makers is a good fit for Coble. I haven't seen him play but he looks to be the leader of this young group who hopefully can lead Northwestern to a weekend tourney in March. Coble has reportedly worked hard in the offseason to improve his strength and shooting range, I am interested to watch him play and see just how good he can become.

C - Nikola Baran - redshirted freshman from Croatia. Baran will probably start some games and and Ivan Peljusic will start the rest, depending on matchups. The center position in the Princeton offense has to be a good passer and make excellent decisions. Coach Carmody isn't convinced the pure shooter Baran has what he wants in a center but time will tell.

Key Bench - Ivan Peljusic - the other redshirt freshman center from Croatia. Peljusic is more of an athletic, low-post scorer and I'm sure he'll see plenty of time off the bench and a handful of starts.
Key Bench - Mike Cappoci - true freshman who is very athletic. He won't start but look for him to be a key member off the bench as he gains valuable experience.
Key Bench - Jason Okrzseik - the 2nd year transfer from Rice and lone senior on the team. Okrzseik could see some starts as I'm sure Carmody will tinker with different starting lineups till he finds what he likes.

Prediction - This team is young and marginally talented. The talent level is improving but it is not at Big Ten standards yet. Of the eight players I anticipate who will contribute the most there is one senior and 1 junior. The four freshmen and 2 sophomores will be the nucleus of this team over the next couple years. This year should be a step forward but getting more than 5 or 6 conference wins (remember 2 extra games) would be an improve year and something they can build on for 2008-09. Personally I look forward to watching them and seeing the young talent grow throughout the season. Unfortunately for Wildcat fans they'll have to wait another year to see the benefits reaped from this group.

UPDATE: If Coble comes back from his leave of absence Northwestern finishes 9th in confernce with 6 wins. If he is not back or is obviously not the same from his time with his sick mother, then they will finish 11th.

Golden Gopher Basketball Preview

I don't want to totally ignore the football season but it is time to replace the football frustration with basketball optimism. I attended the exhibition game with Minnesota State - Mankato last night and I am ready to give you a basketball preview...
Key Losses

NONE

Key Additions

Tubby - The biggest change to the program this offseason was the addition of Tubby Smith (DUH, I know!). This change coupled with the return of the entire relevant roster should make for a significant difference in the team's output. Personally I was never too harsh on Monson, but a coach of Tubby's stature is certain to be a better teacher and recruiter.

What I expect from Coach Smith is a team that will play better defense, run a more balanced offense and individual players that will be better prepared to make good decisions. An entire offseason with his roster makes me hopeful that the key players such as Tollackson, McKenzie and Coleman will be much better basketball players. I'll get more into them later but for now I just hope to see improvement in shot selection, defensive positioning and offensive teamwork.

Al Nolen (PG) - Most of the offseason Nolen was kind of an afterthought as an incoming freshman. But after last night I was very impressed and I think he will be a very good player over the next 4 years. He has good size, he was very fluid on the court, defended well and in the last few min of the game they ran a set play for Nolen to nail a 3 (and he did). Some freshmen see their playing time decrease as the competition increases and some play more as we get into the Big Ten season. I foresee Nolen getting more and more PT as the year goes on (in part because we are lacking at PG).

Blake Hoffarber (SG) - This was the freshman expected to make the most immediate impact. The reigning Minnesota Mr. Basketball and Espy Award winner had fans excited that he'll quickly be an outside threat that defenses will have to guard. This may be the case, but based on my limited opportunity to see him play I think he will struggle this season, especially when the speed and physicality of the Big Ten season picks up. There is a good chance that I could be wrong on this one, but my gut tells me that Blake will not contribute much in 2007-08.

Hoffarber moves well and given time his shot is good. But I think he'll need more time to adjust to the speed of the Big Ten game. Nolen will make this adjustment faster and that is often the key to freshman playing time. Both will be good down the road but I think Blake will take longer to adjust.

The Core

Spencer Tollackson (C) - A lot of people think the heart and soul of the gophers is guard Lawrence McKenzie, but I beg to differ. This team's success rides squarely on the shoulders of Tollackson. Don't get me wrong, we don't win without significant contributions from McKenzie and Coleman, but Tollackson is the leader of this team. Last year was rocky from the opening tip, but the worst basketball was seen when Tollackson was injured and unable to dress for games.

Tollackson isn't a great Big Ten center but he is very solid. He rebounds well, he defends well and he has a nice touch around the basket. His precense in the paint made things easier for Coleman and the backcourt players. When Tollackson was down for 7 Big Ten games the team lost by nearly 15 points per game and struggled to score points. After his return the team averaged 10 points more per game. The end results were the same but the team was much more competitive and competent really.

Ultimately, Tollackson isn't sexy or pretty but he is one of the better centers in the league. Any chances at postseason for this team rest on Tollackson.

Lawrence McKenzie (G) - here lies our most talented and athletic player. McKenzie can light up the scoreboard at any moment. The problem has been shot selection and his inability to involve his teammates in the offense. I don't completely blame McKenzie for all of this. The offense under Monson required McKenzie to carry an unfair burden, and then when he was creating shots the other 4 players were stagnant. Under Tubby I expect McKenzie and his teammates to be much smarter basketball players on the offensive end of the floor. His points should go up and his assists should also.

Defensively McKenzie looked great last night (albeit vs. a D2 school). When he wants to he can be a lock down defender. He was getting his hands on a lot of passes last night and was a part of several fast break points. I think that Tubby's system on Off and Def will suit McKenzie just fine and he will flourish in his senior season.

Dan Coleman (PF) - 4th highest returning scorer, 5th highest in blocked shots and 6th highest returning rebounder in the Big Ten. Coleman is also very talented and is part of the 3-piece key to this season. Tollackson is the heart/leader, McKenzie is the scoring guard and Coleman is steady force who can carry a team one night and do his part while others shoulder the load the next.

Coleman's problem has usually been his preference to play outside instead of using his 6'9" body in the paint where his athleticism creates mismatches and he is tough to guard. His ability to shoot from outside is clearly a strength but he needs to utilize his post skills as well to help this team.

A season where Coleman averages 15 ppg and 8 rpg is very realistic. Watching the offensive system employed by the gophers last night looks like it will give Coleman ample opportunity to use spacing away from the basket and beat his man on backcuts, post ups with an open lane and open shots when Tollackson is working down low. This could be a very productive season for Coleman.

Guys We Need to Contribute

Jamal Abu-Shamala (SG) - in full disclosure, I am not the biggest JAS fan in Gopher Nation. The guy is a great shooter but the rest of his game screams mid-major (or D2) to me. I'm probably harder on him than I should be, but I look forward to the day when our team's talent is further along than it currently is. Anyway, JAS is a necessary component to this team. He is a VERY good outside shooter and we will need his 43% shooting to keep the lane and the penetration lanes open for the Core (above). Jamal did not play in the exhibition opener because he cut his hand doing the dishes.

If JAS can improve slightly on his points and rebounds (8 and 4 would be nice) and most importantly cut down turnovers he will be just fine.

Jon Williams (C) - the backup center is also the 3rd string C (and 4th string for that matter). Williams is the only player on the bench who is over 6'7". If there is any foul trouble or injuries and because the starting frontcourt can't play 40 min each, Williams is the most important bench player we have. Fortunately I was pleasantly surprised last night. Mankato's big man was a D1 scholarship player out of high school so Williams performance isn't completely meaningless. Regardless of the competition, Williams looked MUCH more competent in the paint. A year ago he looked like he was tripping over his own feet, but the 2007-08 version was great on the boards and his court awareness involved more than trying to find the painted boxes on the floor. I was very encouraged and Williams will be a valuable backup.

Lawrence Westbrook (G) - another scoring PG, but smallish SG. Westbrook contributed very little last season and when he did play it was not very effective, his turnover total was higher than his rebounds and assists combined. But with that said I think he is going to be much improved and valuable this year. Last night he played significant minutes and even started the game. His defense was his greatest attribute, but he also chipped in 10 points, 3 reb and only had 1 turnover. I think we will all be happy with his production for most of this season.

I'd like to be Optimistic

Kevin Payton (G) - Payton is naturally a PG in a 6'5" frame. This could potentially create matchup problems for the opponent. The problem is I think this is a matchup problem for Minnesota as well. Payton's 2 biggest problems are his turnovers and his lack of foot speed. Guarding a D2 guard was a struggle for him last night. He seems to be in the right positions defensively but his footwork and footspeed were clearly lacking. Coming into the season I was hopeful for Payton, but I just don't see him being the player we had hoped he would be. For now he is starting but I see Nolen taking over the PG role in January.

Damian Johnson (SF) - Johnson is another guy I had high hopes for, but was disappointed in this exhibition contest. He is a tall, lean athlete with great shot blocking ability. But beyond that he also has slow feet and his offensive game leaves a lot to be desired. When he has a chance to come across to help, defensively, he can really alter shots with his vertical and long arms. But defending 1-on-1 is usually a bad matchup for us. He is a 6'7" sophomore with some potential but I am no longer holding my breath. He will have to help us at times and hopefully his rebounding and shot blocking will be the role that he grows into, but his contributions will not come on the offensive end or shutting down opposing wings with quickness.

The Offense

This got me very excited. These guys executed a motion offense that actually helped them to score baskets. Things were very spread out with 1 post in the middle. There was plenty of room for the post to operate and score if he desired and there were a ton of back cuts/screens that lead to layups. I didn't see very many set plays (other than a late 3 for Nolen) but that was probably by design since this will be the first game scouted I'm sure. I loved the motion, I loved the ball movement and I loved how the players seemed to be aware of what the rest of their teammates were doing. Big improvement.
The Defense

The pressure was turned up a few notches. There were times when guys were out of position and there were times when guys were just beat because of bad footwork (Payton). But there were also a LOT of tipped passes and steals for transition buckets. This group showed a little bit of determination and an ability to occasionally stop the other team (not just hope they missed). Rebounding was a huge issue for this defense a year ago. And while it was OK last night I still think that 10 rebounds to a D2 team is too many. Williams did a great job of ending possessions with a rebound, but Tollackson has to have more than 2 defensive rebounds (Coleman only had 3 as well). Overall this defense was much better than anything we saw a year ago, but there is room for improvement.

Predictions?

Well, I've said it on here before (and remember I am a huge optimist), but I really think this team will be talked about on Selection Sunday. At the very least they will be a bubble team that does not quite get in. This team will be much better than last year, how much is the question.

Non-conference? - I see only 3 games that are even losable (Iowa State, Florida State and UNLV). I think Iowa State will be a statement game since that game was kind of the very early defining moment for their season. 10-2 is very realistic as they head into the Big Ten season (11-1 isn't out of the question with this schedule).

Big Ten Season - a big part of my optimism surrounds the fact that the conference should be slightly down this year. Ohio State and Wisconsin lost a lot of very good players. Michigan was average last year and lost 4 starters. Iowa and Northwestern lost 3 starters from below average teams. I could go on, but the point is there is opportunity for a team like Minnesota to make a run at 4th or 5th in conference. For instance, Michigan State is considered a title contender and they lost to Grand Valley State tonight, also a D2 school. I think they need 8 wins in conference to get on the bubble. I see 7 and then 11 other games to get 1 or 2 more. It won't be easy but my prediction is 18-12, 1 win in the conference tourney and an NCAA berth.

Gopher Hockey Preview

I know nothing about hockey so I recruited a friend and gopher hockey expert really big fan to give us the low down. Considering I could maybe name 5 gophers (all time, certainly not current), he is much more qualified than I am. Please welcome Wayne as he gives us the official Gopher Nation - Gopher Hockey preview (4 games into the season)...

For Hockey news and analysis on a regular basis I suggest you check out GopherPuck

Key losses - We lost 2 seniors leaders from the 06-07 season. Star goalie Kellen Briggs and defensemen Mike Vannelli. There were also a couple players that decided to forego their college careers and move on to bigger things. Jim O'Brien (would've been a sophomore this year) decided to bail out over the past summer to play with the Western Hockey League powerhouse Seattle Thunderbirds. Superstar Alex Goligoski (would've been a senior this year) also decided to leave and play for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Tyler Hirsch also left "voluntarily" due to some sketchy reasons. Some say it was related to mental issues. I think it can all be traced back to "girl problems"--it's the only possible explanation.

Key additions - The Gophers picked up a well rounded crew for the 06-07 season. Five players come from the USHL and two from the National Development Team. All seven are originally from Minnesota. Interestingly, the entire team is once again built from Minnesotans. I don't believe this is on purpose as it was in the Doug Woog days--Lucia has no qualms about recruiting talent from anywhere. From what little I've seen of the freshman class this year, I'm impressed. I'll be keeping an eye on forward Patrick White. He scored a sweet even strength goal in the third period against Michigan in the Ice Breaker tourney and appears to be a great fit with the Gopher hockey program. It looks like he's been playing with the team for several seasons. The same can be said for Stu Bickel, Drew Fisher, and Mike Hoeffel. They have good synergy out there. It's very encouraging to see. (yes, I said synergy...)

Forwards - We have a good mix of size and strength with our forwards this year. On one end of the spectrum, you have gargantuan juniors Ryan Stoa at 6-3/217,Blake Wheeler at 6-4/215, and Ryan Flynn at 6-3/210. On the other end, you have speedsters Jay Barriball at a svelte 5-9/156 and Evan Kaufmann at 5-9/167. Watch for those guys on odd man breaks. If they get a step, they'll be gone (and probably drawing a tripping or hooking penalty during the sprint for the net). Unfortunately, one of our biggest players, Stoa, is out for the season with a knee injury sustained in the second game of the season. We'll miss his size in front of the net. Blake Wheeler continues to get better as the years go on. He's a natural out there. He often looks to set up the perfect play, but, if that's not an option, he's perfectly capable of turning it into a one man show. He's a walking highlight reel.

Defensemen - We have some size and experience on defense this year. Senior Derek Peltier and junior R.J. Anderson have seen solid so far this season. We also have some fresh faces out there. Stu Bickel has the makings of a hockey great--not to mention a sweet hockey name. We have a couple more freshman who will be tested this year. Both Cade Fairchild and Kevin Wehrs are a little small so I hope they can stay with the odd man rushes and breakaways. From what I've seen so far, the Gophers have given up several so far and Frazee has had to pull off some magic as a result. I also worry that they will not be able to clear the riff-raff from in from of the net in order to give Frazee a good look at the play. It's early though...

Goalie - I've been very impressed with Jeff Frazee so far this season. He seems a lot quicker in the net and is following the play with sixth sense abilities. Maybe Robb Stauber has actually adopted him. He's improved in every aspect of his game from last year with the exception of wanting to trade in his stick and play defense. The guy has to learn to stay in the crease. He's out in the corner or behind the net more than he's in the crease it seems. He's had a few close calls, but Adam Hauser started off the same way as well and look how he ended his college career. We have 2 back-up goalies, but I'm afraid to say that I haven't paid much attention during practice to get a feel for their abilities. Brent Solie is a senior, but I swear I haven't seen that little dude out there at all. The other option is the freshman Alex Kangas. Again, no input from this guy--too new to glean anything.

Why will the Gophers win the WCHA? - The Gophers have a very good chance to take the Broadmoor Trophy (the WCHA playoff champions) as well as the McNaughton Cup (the WCHA regular season champions) this season. The talent is there as well as the leadership. However, there's seems to be a recurring theme--start slow on Friday and come out flying on Saturday. The Gophers seem to need some time to ramp up. This goes for the season as well. It could take a couple months for everyone to get on the same page. Once they do, watch out. They aren't afraid of a challenge and seem to feed off the energy of competition. The harder an opponent plays, the harder the Gophers play. Conversely, they play down to "lesser" teams. Only when times get tough will they turn it up a notch and pull out the stops.

Will then win the Frozen Four? - It's way too early to predict a NCAA championship, but as I mentioned above, there's a chance. The team looks pretty sharp so far and we have the leadership to take us through the tough times and not get presumptuous when they're on a roll.

Who is better Doug Woog or Don Lucia? - Based on NCAA championship history--Lucia. Based on partying ability--Woog. Based on hairstyle--too close to call.

Which is heavier a zamboni or a Wisconsin cheerleader? - Depends on if we're talking about propane-powered or electric...

What makes for a better hockey player a sweet mullet or missing teeth? - A sweet mullet (must have hair long enough to be seen while wearing a regulation helmet) will trump missing teeth. Missing teeth may only mean the player has been in a lot of fights or doesn't play with a full cage on his helmet.