Breaking Down the Box - Penn State (part 2)

Penn State - 68
Minnesota - 76
BOX SCORE


Basketball is a game of runs and Sunday's afternoon tilt proved just that.

Minnesota jumped to an early 10-7 lead only to let it slip into a 13 point hole after a Penn State run of 8-24. This run spanned 8:46 and saw Minnesota start 0-11 during the first 5:01 of the run. You read that right, we went a span of five minutes making zero shots in 11 attempts, 4/16 overall.

Fortunately the three point line is still only 19'9" away and the 13 point deficit was quickly cut in half after back to back threes by Johnson and the Hoff. Minnesota used a 17-4 run to tie the game with 0:44 left in the half.

Down two to start the half, Minnesota made the first run this time and started with a 15-1 run which ate up 5:13 and gave them a comfortable 12 point lead with less than 15:00 left.

But maybe it was too comfortable. Just when it felt like the Gophers were going to run away with the game Penn State had one run left in them to cut the Gopher lead to just two. With 4:42 remaining and a 13 point gopher lead Penn State turned over Minnesota and used a 1-12 run to make it a one possession game (2 points) with just 2:37 to go.

Then Westbrook said enough was enough and he scored six of the gophers last 7 points to seal the deal.

Player of the Game - Lawrence Westbrook

Nobody really stood out on Sunday but Westbrook had an outstanding second half.

Second Half Stats...
Pts - 10 (15 total)
Reb - 5 (6 total)
Ast - 3 (4 total)
Stl - 2 (2 total)
Turnovers - 0 (1 total)

Tempo Free Zone -the tempo stats tell us a lot about this game. The Gophers rebounded well (62% Def Reb%) and turned PSU over (forcing 26.5%). Effective FG% was fairly even as was points per possession so the fact that we ended their possessions and turned them over is what won the game for us.




Up Next - @Purdue

Before you sream, YIKES, I think this game will at a minimum be competitive and is ripe to steal (don't tell the Boilermakers). Don't get me wrong, I think Matt Painter has been outstanding this year and I love that Purdue has been such a great story. But there is opportunity here and I think our match-ups are OK.

HERE is a good comparison of player stats.

There are two key match ups for Thursday.

E'twaun Moore vs. Al Nolen
Calassan / J.Johnson vs. Tollackson

I'll get into this all more with an actual preview but I think we can make a game of this. Unfortunately I fear this will be another close lose, moral victory or whatever you want to call a positive spin on a loss. So I don't know if we can pull this out but I think we can make it closer than a 7-7 should against a 12-2 home team.

Breaking Down the Box - Penn State

Minnesota - 76
Penn State - 73
BOX SCORE

Well Gopher Nation, you are welcome. I was wearing a T-shirt during the 1st half, I then went to shower and came back for the 2nd half in a different t-shirt. The 2nd shirt obviously was NOT the right one, so once we got down by 16 I promptly switched back and you know the rest. You are welcome.

There are a ton of things to be excited about watching this game. The way they remained composed down 16 on the road is the most impressive to this blogger. Tollackson's efficiency and dominance in the paint, Nolen's saviness on defense and of course Hoffarber's incredibly hot shooting.

Through most of the first half the Gophers were following GopherNation's game plan exactly as it was laid out for them. Claxton was scoring at will and dominating while the rest of his team was rather silent. Then all hell broke loose as Morrissey and Battle both started scoring with very little resistance by the gopher defense. Those two combined for 35 points (32 in the last 30 min of the game) and nearly beat us with their hot shooting.

Minnesota scored early in the 2nd half but then let PSU go on a 17-2 run and take a 16 point lead. In that run we had 3 missed three's and 2 turnovers while it covered 5:20 off the clock. That's when the freshmen guards took over. Here is what I calculate their stats in the last 13:00 of the game...

Hoffarber - 14 pts on 4/6 from behind the arc
Nolen - 4 assists, 1 reb and 1 steal leading to free throws that iced the game.

Those two were a nice tandem down the stretch and keyed this win when McKenzie sat with fouls and Coleman wasn't much of a factor.

Overall, this was a fun game to watch. Penn State has some athletes. I'm sure they'd love to have a couple big guys like Tollackson or Coleman to go with their bulky and athletic forwards. And I know we could use a big strong kid to attack the glass like Cornley or of course Claxton.

Game Ball - Tollackson

19 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast

I know this should probably go to Hoffarber, but I would argue that Tollackson was the reason the outside shots opened up like they did. Remember that early we were 1/7 from behind the arc and our only scoring option was the steady Tollackson. His 11 2nd half points were just as important as Hoffarber's 14.

Tempo Free Zone

Obvious to anyone who watched, but Penn State killed us on the offensive glass. On the season they have only been rebounding 19% of their own misses. This afternoon they got the ball back on 38.2% of their misses. That nearly killed us, if you watch their last two possessions they had an extra opportunity to score with offensive rebounds.

The stat for the Gophers is that we turned them over on nearly 25% of their possessions. So a quarter of the time we stole the ball or they gave us the ball without a shot. We have been great at this all season and tonight was no different.

Up Next

The tough schedule continues with three very tough games in the next 10 days. We get arguably the two best teams in the conference coming here (Indiana, Michigan State) then we travel to Ohio State. Chances are pretty good that we lose those and move on with a 2-4 record. That doesn't sound great but the rest of the schedule is full of winable games and we should be able to get back to .500 rather quick with Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa and Illinois 4 of the next 5 games.

But if we can steal just one of the next three this team will start to look like an upper level team in the Big Ten and one who wants to play into March. That is my battle cry over the next 10 days...

STEAL ONE GAME!

Minnesota @ Penn State - Preview

This is a big game for the Gophers. There are a handful of teams fighting for 5th (maybe even 4th) in the league and currently these are the favorites to earn that spot. For Penn State this is a home game and you should win it. For Minnesota this is a winable road game that you need if you want to get yourself on the bubble and into the tournament.

Overall Penn State isn't a great team bu they have a great player in Geary Claxton who is a nightmare match up for Minnesota. Our weakest link in the starting lineup is SF and Raymar Morgan is GN exhibit: A as to what happens when a talented and athletic SF faces the Gophers. Visions of Abu-Shamal starting on one of the best players in the conference will keep me up all night tonight.



But lets say Claxton goes "Morgan" on us and drops 31 and 10 on us. The comforting part is that the rest of the Nittany Lions aren't that scary. PF-Jamel Cornley is a good player and they have some talent in the backcourt but there is a reason they were picked to be in the bottom group with Northwestern, Michigan and Iowa.

They are hot right now and the team that was unable to win a road game last year has started out 2-0 on the road in conference.

	Minnesota	Penn State
Record	11-3	10-4
RPI	50	113
KenPom	34	61
SOS	163	217

Match Ups

PG - McKenzie vs. Taylor Battle - this is a unique match up of a senior vs. a freshman. Battle has been decent this year averaging 7.5 ppg and 3.4 apg (10th in BigTen), what should give Gopher fans hope is his recent performances in Big Ten play. Even though he has averaged 11.5 ppg in his first two B10 road games in those two games he shot 27.2%. In fact on the season he isn't much better shooting 28.7%. The fact that the Gophers have been good at hurrying perimeter shooters (Ben Woodside and Neitzel 2-11 for example) should mean that Battle won't buck his shooting trend this time.

PUSH SG - Westbrook vs. Dan Morrissey - Jr, guard who is about the equivalent of Westbrook (statistically speaking). Neither are big scorers on their teams but both are capable of making plenty of shots if ignored. I have more faith in Westbrook as he's been solid defensively when he's not facing an overly athletic opponent. Morrisey is a shooter but he's not athletic.

SF - Abu-Shamala vs. Geary Claxton - AAAHHH, make him go away! Claxton had his best game of the year last year vs. Minnesota (20 and 12), fortunately we only played him once. JAS isn't capable of guarding him it will take a team effort. Johnson is the best match up we have, but I no longer hold out hope that we'll see a lineup change without an injury. But that's not the point the point is that Claxton won't be stopped by this team, the best we can hope for is to be slowed down and not let anybody else beat us.

PF - Coleman vs. Jamelle Cornley - our best player vs. their 2nd best. Cornley is an undersized PF who is very athletic. Coleman has been playing at a very high level and an undersized, athletic forward won't worry me. If Coleman can keep him off the offensive glass and under his season average that will help tremendously. I am hopeful, but I think realistic that Coleman will win this one for us.

C - Tollackson vs. Andrew Jones - Jones starts but I he's not the key matchup here. Penn State goes small often and this will go one of two ways. Either the Gophers exurt their will and pound the ball inside to Tollackson, Coleman or Williams. OR PSU goes small and we play a smaller lineup with Coleman inside and Johnson at PF.

BENCH - I have to say that I expected good things from this team but the strength of the bench has taken me by surprise. Hoffarber's shooting, Nolen's on-the-ball defense and Johnson's shot blocking ability will not only outplay the Nittany Lions but it will be enough for the gophers to win the game. Penn State will come with freshman David Jackson to play forward, Jr-G Stanley Pringle and 6'11" Brandon Hassell. All are talented but I'll take our bench this week.

KEYS

1. The other 4 guys - Claxton will get 20+ and probably 10+ rebounds. But in our excitement to stop Claxton we can't over-commit and leave Cornely open for dunks or Morrissey open for 3's. Often your goal should be to stop the opponents best and "make somebody else beat you." But as Raymar showed us that one guy CAN beat us. Let Claxton get plenty of points (just not too many) but keep everyone else in check.

2. Turnovers - They are 15th nationally at keeping care of the ball. But we are fairly good at turning over other teams. We need to frustrate and turnover Battle early and often. Get him a little rattled then bring in Nolen to break him.

3. Don't Come Out Flat - We are heading on the road, don't forget to show up. I have often seen Gopher teams show up and lay an egg. Get good shots early in the paint and box out. If we come out expecting Hoffarber to have a hot hand again and then we get to watch McKenzie, Westbrook and Nolen shoot a lot of threes while they ignore Coleman/Tollackson we coudl be in trouble. Play good D, get good shots and box out. Fortunately these are the things that Tubby has convinced these kids to do.

Prediction - The gophers have not been very good on the road (with 1 exception, MSU) and Claxton could very well dominate, but I like the rest of our matchups. And when Nolen, Hoffarber and Johnson come in the scales will tip in our favor. There is a good chance that Coleman could end up guarding him and if that is the case we could slow him down. As I said in the "keys" section the real danger is we pay so much attention to Claxton that Morrissey hits several threes or Cornley gets layups and dunks on over helping.

When it comes down to it, they are thin on depth, despite their "athleticism they don't offensive rebound very well, they don't shoot very well and have very little size.

I expect that we will shoot better, out rebound them and have fewer turnovers. That usually equates to a win.

Minnesota - 72
Penn State - 66

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Penn State

UPDATE: PSU blogger Black Shoe Diaries has a thorough preview. After further review (not BSD's preview) I am calling PSU to be 6-12 and finish tied with Michigan for 8th/9th place.

A year ago Penn State came into the season with high expectations. They were returning 4 starters from a 6-10 team (in conference) and were ready to make some noise in the Big Ten. Nobody told them that if you don't play defense you don't win in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions were last defensively in the conference and finished 2-14.

This year they return 3 starters and again are optimistic. Their optimism stems from the return of Geary Claxton who is the Big Ten's leading returning rebounder (8.0) and 2nd scorer (16.3). To go with Claxton they also return Jamelle Cornley, David Jackson returns from a medical redshirt and other talented but young players.

Can they make the jump from a last place team to a competitive Big Ten team in 1 year? Probably not but here are the kids who will look to improve on last years debacle.

PG - Talor Battle - Like their 2-14 partner, Northwestern, Penn State will likely start the season with a freshman PG. The downside is that he is replacing an experienced starter who graduated, the upside is that Battle has more athleticism and quickness than his predecessor. Battle was a dynamic scorer in his senior season and will look to infuse an offensive spark into PSU. The question is can he help to upgrade the Nittany Lion defense?

SG - Stanley Pringle - anther new face to the starting line-up. Pringle should also upgrade the speed and athletic ability of the PSU backcourt. This JUCO transfer is really fast and will hopefully be able to use that speed to apply some defensive pressure to opposing guards.

SF- Geary Claxton - an NBA talent who will likely lead the team in scoring and rebounding. But can he use his talent to lead this team to more wins? Often lower tier teams have players with outstanding numbers because somebody has to score, but can Claxton get it done on the defensive end and offensively play with the other 4 guys to get Ws?

PF - Jamelle Cornley - The 2006 Big Ten Freshman of the year had a solid sophomore season as well. But Conley, like Claxton needs to improve defensively as he continues to mature as a basketball player.

C - Brandon Hassell - athletic, strong but thin big man. Hassell could break out and have a big season. But here again the big question for Hassell and the rest of his teammates is can they put together a breakout defensive season? Along with stoping teams, Penn State had trouble rebounding the ball and that will rest partly on Hassell to improve.

Key Bench - Schyler King - JUCO transfer foward who will compete for playing time.
Key Bench - David Jackson - redshirted last season after an injury. Jackson is another forward who could start but likely will come off the bench for key minutes.
Key Bench - Andrew Jones - a redshirt freshman center who will hopefully add some size to this undersized frontcourt.
Key Bench - Jeff Brooks - a highly recruited wing who is in a situation where he could make an immediate impact in the Big Ten.

Prediction - Going from a season where they were unable to win just one road game and finished with only 2 conference wins, it is hard to imagine a season where Penn State makes a significant jump in the standings. They do have an outstanding player in Claxton and some other talented pieces. But a team that is young and needs to improve their defense as much as they need to improve seems to be too big of a leap.

I see a 5-13 conference season for the Nittany Lions. They have the potential to be the team that makes me look the worst. The talent is here to break out and win 6-8 games, but getting over the mental hump of a road win within the Big Ten and a team that relies on the 2-3 zone to stop teams just won't get a vote of confidence from me until they prove it first.