Nobody is talking about Adam Weber

Top 5 storylines surround the Golden Gophers heading into the 2008 football season.

1 - they were bad last year
2 - the defense was REALLY bad last year
3 - Tim Brewster uses the word tremendous a lot
4 - Tim Brewster had a tremendous recruiting class last year
5 - Eric Decker played baseball

I wonder why there is so little talk or coverage of Adam Weber's tremendous freshman season. Weber wasn't exactly on a Heisman list nor was he even under consideration for All Big Ten, but when you really look at things, he did have a very good season as a freshman starting in the Big Ten.

Just looking at the numbers alone Weber had a good year. Weber finished top 4 in the conference for Passing Yds and TDs. And don't give me the "product of a system" argument because more teams in the Big Ten run a spread or spread variation than teams that run a more traditional offense. So even if he is a product of a system it is a similar system employed by most of his peers.

The areas that were not as pretty were of course completion percentage an interceptions. This is where we break down the numbers to compare Weber to previous quarterbacks who started as freshmen in the Big Ten. Obviously 19 interceptions and completing only 57.5% of your passes are areas that need improvement but when you compare numbers to the following you realize it was pretty good "for a freshman."

	PCT	Yds	TDs	INT	Rsh Yds
Juice Williams (Ill)	39.5	1489	9	9	576
Kellen Lewis (Ind)	54.9	2221	14	7	441
Chad Henne (Mich)	60.2	2743	25	12	0
Jeff Smoker (MSU)	52.3	1365	6	7
Brett Basanez (NW)	58.5	2204	7	7
Zach Mills (PSU)	55.2	1669	9	12
Adam Weber	57.5	2895	24	19	617

The interceptions stand out as bad no matter who you are comparing it to. That has to improve. But everything else looks very good.

• 1st in yards
• 2nd in TD
• 3rd in completion %
• 1st in rushing yards
  

All in all what a solid year for a freshman starting all 12 games for a Big Ten program. Juice Williams is a phenominal athlete who gets a lot of press but when you break it down Weber had a much better freshman season (more yards, more TDs, higher completion % and even more yards rushing).

What does this mean as he heads into his second season as QB1? That is hard to judge. I'd love to assume his good numbers will go up and his bad numbers will go down. I looked at Brett Basanez (ran Dunbar's spread), Juice and Kellen Lewis to see how they fared from their freshman to their sophomore seasons. Lewis and Williams saw all good numbers increase dramatically and INTs also increased slightly. Basanez's numbers actually decreased as he threw only 4 TDs to 12 INTs as a sophomore. I don't know what the reasoning was behind this dramatic drop in production but let's hope Dunbar does not let this mistake repeat.

What I wasn't looking for but was pleasantly surprised was the increase in their team's wins from freshman to sophomore seasons.

	Win +/-
Juice Williams	+7
Kellen Lewis	+2
Chad Henne	-2
Jeff Smoker	+2
Brett Basanez	+3

Last year was painfully bad for Golden Gopher fans. For this season to be considered a success we need more than a +2 turnaround. But I fully anticipate Weber will modestly increase completion % by 3-4 points, INTs will reduce by -4 while TDs and passing yards will remain about same (maybe down a little bit as defense improves and running game is more consistent). If this were to happen +3 in the win column is a very real possibility with hope of +4 or +5.

After a record breaking season as a freshman, Adam Weber is poised to put his name to the left of several more school records and potentially Big Ten records. It is simplistic math to take his freshman numbers x 4 and assume he'll throw for over 11,500 yards and 96 TDs. Both would be top 2 in Big Ten history, but history shows us that injuries and defenses often have a lot to say about how Weber's career shakes out. I don't care about Big Ten records at this point, what I care about is winning games. And I think Weber gives us a very good chance to do just that. Whether anybody else is talking about it or not.

Ranking the Big Ten QBs as NFL QBs

The cool thing to do now is put out your own ranking of Big Ten Quarterbacks and as a blogger you are required to do a comparison list at least 4 times a year. Since Weber was one of our few bright spots in 2007 and is one of our few positions of "strength" heading into 2008 I too will take part.

The Best

1. Curtis Painter (Pur) - Painter threw a lot of passes a year ago (1st in B10), completed a high percentage of them (2nd in B10), threw very few INTs (just 11 in 569 attempts) and also threw a lot of them for 6 pointers (1st in B10). Is Curtis Painter the Tom Brady of the Big Ten? He doesn't have quite as much to work with, but his ability to be consistently accurate and able to find the endzone more than anybody else does draw some comparison. The biggest difference? Painter hasn't show he can win big games against good teams. In his last collegiate season this is his chance to give a big boost to the Boilermakers and put his name on the map.

4. Kellen Lewis (Ind) - Could Kellen become the Daunte Culpepper of the Big Ten? Mr. Lewis losses his primary offensive weapon in WR-JJ Hardy who accounted for 29.8% of Lewis' completions, 37% of his yards and 57% of his TD completions. When DC lost Randy Moss his numbers dropped substantially. TD:INT ratio went from 3.5 : 1 to 1:2. Injuries came along to shorten his season but prior to that he dropped 70 yds per game and was on pace to throw 60% fewer TDs than the year before. I don't know that Lewis will fall victim to essentially seeing his career tailspin into oblivian, but it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to losing the best that offense had going.

3. Todd Boeckman (OSU) - Boeckman is a big QB, with a strong arm and lacks mobility. Peyton Manning anyone? Sorry Buckeye fans, but it would be irresponsible of me to put a former SEC QB here, lets go with Ben Roethlisberger. He's also big with a strong arm, plus he's more of a midwest guy. But I'll end the comparisons there. Everything is ripe for Ohio State to win the Big Ten and roll into the BCS Championship game. Boeckman needs to be just a little improved. Believe it or not, but TB has the highest INT per attempt % of any returning Big Ten QB (even higher than Juice's). Painter threw INTs on 1.93% of his attempts and Lewis 2.26%. TB? He threw an INT on 4.68% of his attempts. That needs to improve and is the primary reason he is where he is on my list.

Next Best

4. Adam Weber (Min) - Vince was Brewster's guy, Vince is probably the best rusher on his team, does not have many weapons on his team and tends to have higher INT%. Check, check, check and check for the Weber comparison. I know I'm a homer but its my blog so screw you. I really think Weber flew under the radar on his way to a very good season last year. Mistakes were high and I've not hidden my thoughts that Weber was directly responsible for the Florida Atlantic and Northwestern losses. But with that said he also put up great numbers in his rFR year while learning a brand new, complicated offense. Of course mistakes will have to be reduced and steady improvement must be shown but this list is not about last year and more about where they will rank in 2008. I think Weber is poised to have a breakout season and will have every opportunity to be near the top of this list in 2009.

5. CJ Bacher (NW) - Jon Kitna threw the ball a LOT last year, was on a losing team and threw about as many TDs as INTs. Bacher threw for a lot of yards with a lot of attempts, but he has the lowest TD% of any returning B1o QB throwing TDs on just 3.65% of his attempts. The next lowest among returning QBs is Jake Christensen at 4.60%. That is kind of an alarming number for Bacher. For those who don't pay attention to the lower half of the Big Ten it would be easy to confuse Bacher and Weber as both are on teams trying to improve but that all depends on fewer mistakes from their QB.

6. Juice Williams (Ill) - I am NOT a fan of Juice Willaims as a QB. He is an incredible athlete and to be fair improved in the last several games last year. BUT, in multiple games last year I watched him completely miss guys who were wide open. Twice in their Indiana game he had certain TDs to WRs who had no defender within 10 yards. On both instances he missed the WR by 5 yards. Completion % was better but his INT% was still really bad. He should probably be higher because his value is in his legs (hence the Michael Vick comparison). Like I said, Juice is an incredible athlete, but I think he will have a very disappointing season with Rashad Mendenhall playing on Sunday's this year.

Solid Starters

7. Brian Hoyer (MSU) - Hoyer quietly is solid. None of his numbers stand out but he threw 20 TDs to 11 INTs and 2,700+ yards. Jeff Garcia was the best I could find as a solid but unspectacular NFL QB. Hoyer is losing WR-Devin Thomas so, like Kellen Lewis, it will be interesting to see how he responds.


8. Daryll Clark (PSU) - I chose Rex Grossman for two reasons. One, nobody is certain who will be starting for the Bears but conventional wisdom suggests that the more experienced Grossman should be the guy in week 1. Secondly, in Chicago if they are going to win it is because of the defense. I guess the fan base's frustration with their team's offensive coordinator factors into this decision as well. Clark should be the man in the new "Spread HD". Nobody is sure yet but

9. Jake Christensen (Iowa) - Cleo Lemon was on a bad team. He wasn't terrible but had a low completion percentage which stalled drives and lacked other offensive weapons. Having an experienced, returning starter is big in NCAA football. Christensen is solid who threw the fewest INTs of any returning QB. But like Lemon was on a bad team, was an unspectacular QB who isn't hurting his team but isn't exactly helping them either. The hopes of the Hawkeyes rest on the shoulder pads of Christensen.

The Rest?

Wisconsin QB (Allan Evridge, Dustin Sherer)- Just hand the ball off, don't worry about throwing the ball. Hand it off and let your defense give you good field position. If you are not familiar with why this comparison is apt or who Tarvaris Jackson is. He is the QB of the Minnesota Adrian Peterson's. Jackson is an unknown but all he has to do is hand the ball off to a super talented RB.

Michigan QB (Steven Threet, ??)- I should lead with the fact that this comparison has NOTHING to do with stats or individual success on the field. The comparison here hinges on teh fact that whoever starts for the Wolverines will probably put up big numbers but we all know they won't beat their more talented rivals.


Terrell Pryor (OSU) - MAKE UP YOUR MIND WOULD YOU? Plenty of talent and the tools to help lead his team to a championship. But probably won't play this year.





If you want some of the other Big Ten QB rankings you can go here...

ProFantasySports.com
ESPN Big Ten Blog
Big Ten Network
Lake the Posts (NW Blog)

And you're Golden Gopher QB1 is...

well, you know who it is. I'm not breaking any news that isn't a couple days old, but I'm here to give my 2 cents...


To be honest since Weber signed with the U was never convinced that he would ever play a snap. I have always been impressed with Mortenson and thought Weber was over-hyped. But even though I am often called a great football mind by my friend Eric, I was wrong about Mr. Weber.

So now have a starting QB with 4 full years of eligibility. By my research the last time that we had a freshman QB for most of the season was Ricky Foggie (maybe the only other time). Weber has been redshirted so he isn't completely green, but he is still going to make freshmen mistakes. Bryan Cupito has been on the record saying that Weber will probably break his passing records. If Weber can truly play and is not beat out by a younger, more talented recruit in the next few years he will have the opportunity to put up impressive numbers. He will be directing the "spread-coast" offense which has lead to monster numbers for other QBs under offensive cordinator, Mike Dunbar.

Just for fun lets take a look at some career records that should be put on notice over the next 4 years. Brett Basanez, former Northwestern QB and product of Mike Dunbar started most of his redshirt freshman season and I'll put his numbers up as well. I know that Weber has a LONG way to go to be in Brett's class but even assume 75% production and Adam Weber will finish as the best Golden Gopher to put his hands under the sweaty behind of a 280+ lb man on a regular basis.

• Career Yardage - Bryan Cupito - 7,446. Weber needs to average 1,862 yards per season. That is 156 yards per game over 4 years. Even as a freshman 200 yards per game isn't out of the question. I don't think we'll see 2,000 this year but he should cut Cupito's record in half in 2 years.
• Basanez - 10,580 (2,645 per season avg)
  
• Passing Attempts - Cory Sauter - 945 - Raise your hand if you fondly remember the Wacker offense. Sauter benefited from this explosive, inept offense and finished with the record for attempts. Under the Spread-Coast Basanez attemted nearly 500 passes in his senior season alone. I don't see 300 attempts for Weber this year but that record will fall before a Big Ten game in his junior season, guaranteed.
• Basanez - 1,584
• Touchdown Passes - Asad Abdul-Kaliq / Cupito - 55 - Alex needs 14 per season to hit this one. With Pinnix/Bennett running the ball and our thin group of WRs this may take 3 years to break but it will fall. Ricky Foggie threw 10 TDs as a freshman, but I expect Alex to beat that and have around 42 TDs to go over his final 3 years.
  
• Basanez - 44 (really?, I would have expected way more)
  
• Completion %, Efficiency Rating and INTs are up to Weber and his decision making skills. Obviously with these there is not an advantage to getting more snaps/games.

That, of course, is a long ways off and a lot has to happen (for instance Weber needs to prove he is starter material and makes it to the Miami(Ohio) game). The season opener should be very interesting to watch if only to see how Weber manages a game, makes decisions and comes back from mistakes (I hope he didn't watch Henig and his 6 INTs for Miss St. Of course Weber is facing the LSU defense but that was ugly). Bowling Green won't be Michigan or Wisconsin but they are a worthy test for a redshirt freshman playing in his first real game at this level.