July 18, 2008

Ranking the Big Ten QBs as NFL QBs

The cool thing to do now is put out your own ranking of Big Ten Quarterbacks and as a blogger you are required to do a comparison list at least 4 times a year. Since Weber was one of our few bright spots in 2007 and is one of our few positions of "strength" heading into 2008 I too will take part.

The Best

1. Curtis Painter (Pur) - Painter threw a lot of passes a year ago (1st in B10), completed a high percentage of them (2nd in B10), threw very few INTs (just 11 in 569 attempts) and also threw a lot of them for 6 pointers (1st in B10). Is Curtis Painter the Tom Brady of the Big Ten? He doesn't have quite as much to work with, but his ability to be consistently accurate and able to find the endzone more than anybody else does draw some comparison. The biggest difference? Painter hasn't show he can win big games against good teams. In his last collegiate season this is his chance to give a big boost to the Boilermakers and put his name on the map.

4. Kellen Lewis (Ind) - Could Kellen become the Daunte Culpepper of the Big Ten? Mr. Lewis losses his primary offensive weapon in WR-JJ Hardy who accounted for 29.8% of Lewis' completions, 37% of his yards and 57% of his TD completions. When DC lost Randy Moss his numbers dropped substantially. TD:INT ratio went from 3.5 : 1 to 1:2. Injuries came along to shorten his season but prior to that he dropped 70 yds per game and was on pace to throw 60% fewer TDs than the year before. I don't know that Lewis will fall victim to essentially seeing his career tailspin into oblivian, but it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to losing the best that offense had going.

3. Todd Boeckman (OSU) - Boeckman is a big QB, with a strong arm and lacks mobility. Peyton Manning anyone? Sorry Buckeye fans, but it would be irresponsible of me to put a former SEC QB here, lets go with Ben Roethlisberger. He's also big with a strong arm, plus he's more of a midwest guy. But I'll end the comparisons there. Everything is ripe for Ohio State to win the Big Ten and roll into the BCS Championship game. Boeckman needs to be just a little improved. Believe it or not, but TB has the highest INT per attempt % of any returning Big Ten QB (even higher than Juice's). Painter threw INTs on 1.93% of his attempts and Lewis 2.26%. TB? He threw an INT on 4.68% of his attempts. That needs to improve and is the primary reason he is where he is on my list.

Next Best

4. Adam Weber (Min) - Vince was Brewster's guy, Vince is probably the best rusher on his team, does not have many weapons on his team and tends to have higher INT%. Check, check, check and check for the Weber comparison. I know I'm a homer but its my blog so screw you. I really think Weber flew under the radar on his way to a very good season last year. Mistakes were high and I've not hidden my thoughts that Weber was directly responsible for the Florida Atlantic and Northwestern losses. But with that said he also put up great numbers in his rFR year while learning a brand new, complicated offense. Of course mistakes will have to be reduced and steady improvement must be shown but this list is not about last year and more about where they will rank in 2008. I think Weber is poised to have a breakout season and will have every opportunity to be near the top of this list in 2009.

5. CJ Bacher (NW) - Jon Kitna threw the ball a LOT last year, was on a losing team and threw about as many TDs as INTs. Bacher threw for a lot of yards with a lot of attempts, but he has the lowest TD% of any returning B1o QB throwing TDs on just 3.65% of his attempts. The next lowest among returning QBs is Jake Christensen at 4.60%. That is kind of an alarming number for Bacher. For those who don't pay attention to the lower half of the Big Ten it would be easy to confuse Bacher and Weber as both are on teams trying to improve but that all depends on fewer mistakes from their QB.

6. Juice Williams (Ill) - I am NOT a fan of Juice Willaims as a QB. He is an incredible athlete and to be fair improved in the last several games last year. BUT, in multiple games last year I watched him completely miss guys who were wide open. Twice in their Indiana game he had certain TDs to WRs who had no defender within 10 yards. On both instances he missed the WR by 5 yards. Completion % was better but his INT% was still really bad. He should probably be higher because his value is in his legs (hence the Michael Vick comparison). Like I said, Juice is an incredible athlete, but I think he will have a very disappointing season with Rashad Mendenhall playing on Sunday's this year.

Solid Starters

7. Brian Hoyer (MSU) - Hoyer quietly is solid. None of his numbers stand out but he threw 20 TDs to 11 INTs and 2,700+ yards. Jeff Garcia was the best I could find as a solid but unspectacular NFL QB. Hoyer is losing WR-Devin Thomas so, like Kellen Lewis, it will be interesting to see how he responds.

8. Daryll Clark (PSU) - I chose Rex Grossman for two reasons. One, nobody is certain who will be starting for the Bears but conventional wisdom suggests that the more experienced Grossman should be the guy in week 1. Secondly, in Chicago if they are going to win it is because of the defense. I guess the fan base's frustration with their team's offensive coordinator factors into this decision as well. Clark should be the man in the new "Spread HD". Nobody is sure yet but

9. Jake Christensen (Iowa) - Cleo Lemon was on a bad team. He wasn't terrible but had a low completion percentage which stalled drives and lacked other offensive weapons. Having an experienced, returning starter is big in NCAA football. Christensen is solid who threw the fewest INTs of any returning QB. But like Lemon was on a bad team, was an unspectacular QB who isn't hurting his team but isn't exactly helping them either. The hopes of the Hawkeyes rest on the shoulder pads of Christensen.

The Rest?

Wisconsin QB (Allan Evridge, Dustin Sherer)- Just hand the ball off, don't worry about throwing the ball. Hand it off and let your defense give you good field position. If you are not familiar with why this comparison is apt or who Tarvaris Jackson is. He is the QB of the Minnesota Adrian Peterson's. Jackson is an unknown but all he has to do is hand the ball off to a super talented RB.

Michigan QB (Steven Threet, ??)- I should lead with the fact that this comparison has NOTHING to do with stats or individual success on the field. The comparison here hinges on teh fact that whoever starts for the Wolverines will probably put up big numbers but we all know they won't beat their more talented rivals.

Terrell Pryor (OSU) - MAKE UP YOUR MIND WOULD YOU? Plenty of talent and the tools to help lead his team to a championship. But probably won't play this year.

If you want some of the other Big Ten QB rankings you can go here...

ESPN Big Ten Blog
Big Ten Network
Lake the Posts (NW Blog)


WWWWWW said...

Juice Williams = Mike Vick? Ouch.

GopherNation said...

I am not a fan of the Juice