Breaking Down the Box - Michigan

Michigan - 60
Minnesota - 69
BOX SCORE


Michigan's record aside, this was a very nice win for the Gophers. If you've paid attention to Big Ten basketball you know that Michigan has been a hot team in the league with a 3 game win streak, including a 10 point win over Ohio State.

The Gophers seemed to be sliding a little and content with their likely NIT fate. While I am pleased they sealed this win, the fact is they did everything they could to allow Michigan to steal this one on the road.

• Allowed 23 offensive rebounds
• Gave Michigan 23 additional shots
• -4 in turnovers
• Shot 52.4% at the free throw line

IF they box out, they win by 16+
IF they make free throws, they win by 12+

IF Lawrence McKenzie doesn't give a 26 point night we lose
IF Jon Williams doesn't have 7 rebounds in the second half, we lose

I don't want to be too hard on the Gophs, in all fairness our half court defense in the second half is what truly won the game for them. Because of our defense and Michigan shot selection we held them to 26.3% shooting in the second half. That is very good.

Two sequences allowed us to retain tempo and then sealed the game...

Tempo Grabbing Moment - Tollackson hurts something and sits. Enter Jon Williams and the Gophers go back to man-to-man. Simply, moving back to man and Williams' ability to rebound gave us momentum and ended the Michigan possessions.

Nail in the Coffin - Hoffarber enters the line up during a time out and drains a three to give us an 11 point lead with 2:37 left. On the ensuing defensive possession the Gophers force a shot clock violation. We take a double digit lead then force a turnover after 0:35 tick off the clock.

Player of the Game - Lawrence McKenzie

Pts - 26
no other stats mattered

I was tempted to give POG to Williams as his second half effort of 7 rebounds and 5 points were more significant I can accurately describe. But I can't overlook McKenzie's best game of the year. The 26 was balanced (13 in each half), several baskets were well timed to get us back into the game and most importantly they were good shots (for the most part). This is the kind of results we have desired and expected of McKenzie all year.

Lawrence should find a way to play Michigan more often, season averages vs...

Michigan - 22.5
Wisconsin - 6.5
Northwestern - 10.5
Illinois - 5

Tempo-Free Zone - If you are sqeemish, I don't recommend looking at these numbers.



Statistically there is no reason we should have won this game. Michigan rebounded nearly 50% of their own misses! Add that to the fact that we turned the ball over on 27.6% of our own possessions and we should thank DeShawn Sims and his 2/11 from behind the arc.

I like simple math truths and tonight here is your mathematical answer to why we won...

eFG% > Def-Reb% + Off TO%

I will take a W any way you want to add it up.

Up Next - Penn State

Another must win. The only thing that worries me is looking past Penn State.

Beating Penn State would get us back to .500 in Big Ten play heading into our final 4 games. Really none of these wins mean much unless you get really hot and does something crazy like win 3 of our last 4; but lets not get carried away.

@Pur - L
OSU - maybe, but likely L
@Ind - L
@Ill - maybe, but likely L

I'll be happy winning 1 of those, ecstatic with 2-2. NIT is our fate unless a miracle happens. NCAA hopes would rely on winning @Pur and @Ind then you have to win one of the other two games and two in the Big Ten Tourney. This team is capable of pulling off an upset, but stringing a few of them together is just too much to expect.

Big Ten Basketball Preview - Michigan

Michigan is one of 3 Big Ten Schools with a new head coach. Coach Beilein brings a unique offensive system to Michigan. It has elements of the Princeton offense but it isn't as complex. In a nutshell they spread you out and it is important that everyone can shoot (even big men, think Kevin Pittsnogle!). That is the interesting piece to this year's Michigan puzzle. They weren't the worst shooting team in the Big Ten but finishing ahead of Northwestern isn't anything to brag about.

I am never a fan of teams that employ a zone as a primary defense, but I am a fan of teams that switch things up. Beilein will move between a 1-3-1 and a 2-3 to keep offenses off balance. This I like and those zones are very different in how they attempt to slow down and knock offenses off rhythm. The 2-3 is your traditional zone that attempts to cut down penetration and the outside shot. The problem is if you run it for more than several possessions teams find your holes and scoring becomes easy. The 1-3-1 is a defense that defends passing lanes and most offenses are not as prepared to find the holes in this zone. Before I break into Xs and Os, the point is that changing things up is great and keeps offenses off balance.

PG - Jarret Smith -good PG with a solid jump shot. Described as a distributor and a role player who needs to do more. Beside's shooting woes, turnovers contributed to Michigan's slide after an 11-1 start to the season. Smith will play a pivotal role in reversing that trend.

SG - Ron Coleman - Coleman could start as a big SG or move to SF and Morris or Harris becomes the SG. Coleman is the lone senior on scholarship and will have to step up his game to lead by example.

SF - DeShawn Sims (pictured right) - former Mr. Basketball in Michigan (2006), currently a sophomore who could have a breakout season. Beilein believes Sims is an excellent shooter with range so expect Sims to be a primary scorer on this Michigan team. In their exhibition game Sims was the only player to attempt more than 4 shots from behind the arc connecting on 3/6 to finish with 14 points. He is a good pick for your B10 fantasy basketball team (I kid, I kid).

PF - Ekpe Udoh - 6'10" sophomore who really was better than expected as a freshman. Last year's 6th man who averaged 5 ppg, 4 rpg and 2 blocks. Not sure how he'll fit into Beilein's offensive system, but he is a talented big man who can really alter things in the paint. May come off the bench and Morris will slide into the starting lineup. That will make Michigan smaller but also a better shooting team.

C - Zach Gibson -6'10" soph, transfer from Rutgers. Started in team's exhibition game. Adds some size to the lineup, but I don't know much about Gibson.

Key Bench - K'Len Morris -redshirt freshman scoring guard. Morris is a scorer and will probably be given every opportunity to grow into Beilein's system. Started exhibition game last week.
Key Bench - Manny Harris - another Michigan Mr. Basketball (2007) is a slasher and scorer. Another decent freshman who will contribute a lot.
Key Bench - Anthony Wright - redshirted freshman from Oak Hill Academy. The 6'6" F will be a key frontcourt player off the bench for the Wolverines. Another nice piece but young.
Key Bench - Jevohn Shepherd - 6'5" junior wing
Key Bench - Kelvin Grady - 5'11" freshman PG

Prediction - Questions about PG and talent in the paint lead me to a less than rosey picture for Michigan basketball. Ultimately what jumps out at me is "square pegs (Michigan roster) and round hole (Beilein's system)." The experienced players don't really fit Beilein's system and those who do are young and unproven. I think given time Michigan can once again be a factor in the Big Ten, but losing 4 starters from a team that finished 8-8 in conference last year means a step backwards to me.

They'll benefit from only playing MichSt and Indiana only once each but I'm still calling a 6-12 season for the Wolverines. 0-6 against the top 4 teams then splitting with the rest of the league sounds about right to me.

Bizarro BCS Standings

As I state before, I want nothing more than the worst possible BCS match-up. Last week I called for Kansas vs. Hawaii, but this week I'm having a change of heart. Here is my BCS top 5.

1. Hawaii (8-0) - if they are the last undefeated team (and everybody else has 3 losses)...whatever, it will never happen. But NOBODY would care to watch the Rainbow Warriors, and that is the goal.

2. Michigan (7-2) - They had 2 ugly losses to start the year, including 1 to a 1AA school. I now want the Wolverines to win the BCS Championships and then I want Appalachian State to win the 1AA title (an actual championship by the way). Then the entire 1AA system can hang their hat on having the best team in college football. Wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State, coupled with a few key losses could see Michigan jump up the polls.

3. Kansas (8-0) - Now we are into the realm of nobody would care. I don't think the Jayhawks have massive football following (I could be wrong) and I KNOW the national audience would greet Kansas with a collective yawn. I'm hesitant to move them up simply because they would still have to beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship game and that would count for something in their favor.

4. Connecticut (7-1) - Who? Another basketball school and currently on top of this basketball conference. The Big East is overrated this year but maybe the Huskies can finish with only the 1 point road loss to Virginia and earn a BCS Championship birth.

5. Arizona State (8-0) - Another school that wouldn't exactly excite the world of college football. But an undefeated Sun Devil team could actually be BCS worthy. They beat Cal last week and now have to run through Oregon, UCLA and USC.